***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.09.2020.-27.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 8.1 7.4 8.3 72.2 57.6 49.8 2.4 5.8 14.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 87 13 100 6.3 5.2 5.7 55.0 52.3 47.6 1.9 4.9 9.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 9.0 7.8 5.9 56.7 54.4 45.8 3.5 6.8 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 86 14 100 9.3 7.5 6.7 53.6 51.8 45.8 2.4 6.7 12.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 6.6 4.9 6.4 55.8 51.6 44.9 1.6 4.9 10.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 4.6 2.5 5.8 46.3 45.7 40.4 0.8 3.1 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 90 10 100 4.1 3.4 6.6 61.5 54.0 50.4 2.1 2.8 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 85 15 100 11.7 9.5 8.6 63.0 50.3 46.5 4.5 9.5 12.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 86 14 100 5.1 3.6 7.0 62.3 53.0 47.0 1.7 3.2 9.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 9.1 5.3 7.6 55.7 47.8 43.9 1.1 6.7 18.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 5.1 3.6 5.9 52.8 51.3 44.8 1.0 3.3 6.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 5.6 4.5 6.3 55.6 50.6 45.5 1.0 4.3 7.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 6.6 3.1 5.7 48.4 48.1 41.0 1.2 3.7 7.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 8.0 6.0 8.5 61.4 52.4 45.7 1.3 4.9 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 5.6 2.8 4.7 40.3 51.4 42.4 1.1 2.8 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 4.0 2.8 6.1 54.6 50.4 44.8 1.8 2.8 5.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 90 10 100 4.3 6.2 7.6 75.5 58.7 54.4 0.9 3.3 7.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 7.3 3.7 8.3 57.4 45.6 43.2 2.2 5.3 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 6.9 4.2 5.4 52.5 52.4 46.0 1.9 4.1 7.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 11.5 8.8 11.0 72.0 51.8 46.4 3.2 8.7 13.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 7.0 7.1 7.2 65.5 55.2 47.9 2.2 4.8 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 91 9 100 6.9 8.9 7.6 75.3 60.8 54.0 0.6 5.8 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 8.0 4.9 5.7 53.5 53.1 45.8 2.7 4.6 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 7.8 4.9 6.7 53.7 49.5 43.6 1.8 5.0 9.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 9.0 8.7 8.9 66.0 56.8 48.7 2.6 7.8 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 6.2 3.1 5.2 46.4 49.3 42.4 1.0 3.2 7.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 7.7 7.8 9.3 74.0 57.8 51.0 3.6 5.9 15.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 6.5 4.4 5.1 44.0 48.6 42.4 0.3 4.8 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 86 14 100 12.3 8.2 9.5 65.8 48.3 45.8 4.2 8.9 19.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 6.6 5.3 5.6 53.4 51.6 46.2 1.1 4.9 9.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------