***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.09.2020.-18.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 21.6 22.1 22.1 2.2 84.2 77.4 20.3 21.0 21.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 22.0 22.5 21.8 1.9 81.3 74.2 20.6 21.2 21.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 22.0 22.6 22.2 2.0 81.9 74.5 20.6 21.4 21.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 22 78 100 15.2 16.2 19.7 2.4 86.5 80.1 13.3 13.9 14.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 22.0 22.3 20.5 1.9 79.5 74.6 20.9 21.4 21.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 18 82 100 21.4 22.7 19.4 2.5 86.0 80.7 19.9 20.5 21.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 21.7 22.2 21.8 2.1 83.9 76.5 20.0 20.9 21.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 26 74 100 12.0 12.4 19.4 1.9 79.2 74.0 10.6 11.1 11.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 21.8 22.0 21.1 1.9 79.0 74.3 20.8 21.3 21.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 21.8 22.2 20.1 2.1 81.5 75.5 20.5 21.0 21.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 22.0 22.3 20.8 1.8 78.1 73.0 20.7 21.2 21.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 21.5 21.7 20.3 1.8 77.1 72.6 19.9 21.0 21.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 22.3 22.7 20.3 1.9 78.4 73.2 21.0 21.4 22.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 22.6 23.0 20.9 2.0 80.9 73.9 20.8 21.7 22.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 21.7 22.4 21.1 2.2 83.7 79.0 20.1 20.9 21.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 22.7 23.0 20.5 2.0 79.6 74.5 21.5 22.1 22.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 21.4 21.8 21.4 2.0 83.5 75.7 19.8 20.6 21.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 21.1 21.7 19.5 2.0 81.4 73.9 19.9 20.3 20.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 21.9 22.4 22.0 1.9 80.6 73.9 20.3 21.1 21.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 17.6 18.0 17.4 1.8 78.3 72.5 16.1 16.8 17.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 21.8 22.2 21.9 2.1 82.3 76.6 20.7 21.2 21.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 22.2 22.8 21.5 2.0 83.1 75.0 20.4 21.4 21.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 22.1 22.5 22.2 2.0 80.2 74.0 20.5 21.3 22.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 22.1 22.8 21.0 2.0 81.0 74.2 20.6 21.4 21.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 26 74 100 21.4 22.0 20.7 2.2 84.8 77.8 20.3 20.8 21.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 22.2 22.7 20.0 2.0 80.1 75.6 20.6 21.3 22.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 21.8 22.1 21.5 2.2 85.2 78.1 20.3 21.0 21.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 22.3 23.4 20.5 2.4 85.8 80.4 20.2 20.6 21.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 16.8 17.1 18.6 1.8 76.6 71.6 15.4 16.0 16.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 21.8 22.4 21.9 1.9 81.7 74.4 20.2 20.9 21.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------