***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.10.2020.-18.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 16.0 17.9 18.2 0.1 49.0 51.1 16.2 18.0 20.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 16.2 17.9 18.0 0.0 47.8 50.2 16.4 18.4 19.4 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 16.0 18.0 18.4 0.0 47.8 50.0 16.7 18.1 20.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 9.0 11.4 16.1 0.2 51.4 51.4 9.6 11.3 12.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 16.3 17.8 16.8 0.0 47.2 49.6 16.9 18.0 19.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 18.1 17.0 15.7 0.4 49.6 51.7 16.0 17.0 18.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 15.7 17.6 18.1 0.1 49.4 51.3 16.0 17.7 19.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 9.6 8.6 16.0 0.1 47.8 50.7 7.1 8.8 10.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 16.5 17.7 17.2 0.0 47.2 50.1 16.6 18.4 19.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 16.2 17.8 16.5 0.2 48.3 51.3 16.5 18.0 19.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 18.7 17.3 16.9 -0.1 46.1 49.4 16.4 18.0 19.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 18.3 16.9 16.8 0.0 47.1 49.7 16.1 17.6 19.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 18.8 17.7 16.4 0.1 47.5 50.6 16.7 17.9 19.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 16.8 19.1 17.3 0.1 50.8 51.6 17.2 19.1 20.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 15.6 17.7 16.8 0.2 51.2 51.7 16.2 17.6 18.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 19.7 18.6 16.7 0.1 48.1 50.4 16.9 18.8 19.9 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 15.3 17.3 17.8 0.1 49.2 51.3 16.2 17.4 19.1 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 15.9 17.1 16.3 0.2 47.9 52.1 16.0 17.7 19.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 15.9 18.2 18.2 0.0 48.1 50.0 16.5 18.3 19.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 12.5 14.6 14.3 0.2 48.4 52.1 12.4 14.7 16.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 16.2 18.1 17.8 0.0 47.8 50.5 16.6 18.4 19.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 16.2 18.4 17.8 0.1 49.9 51.0 16.8 18.4 19.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 16.2 18.5 18.5 0.0 49.9 50.6 16.9 18.5 20.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 16.4 18.6 17.3 0.1 48.9 51.5 16.6 18.8 20.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 15.6 17.4 16.7 0.2 49.2 51.3 16.3 17.4 18.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 18.4 17.4 16.5 0.2 49.6 51.6 16.8 17.5 19.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 16.3 18.0 17.6 0.2 49.9 51.9 16.5 18.0 19.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 16.0 17.9 16.5 0.3 52.3 51.7 16.5 17.8 18.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 11.4 13.3 15.5 0.1 47.4 51.8 11.6 13.8 15.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 16.0 17.4 18.1 0.0 48.4 50.2 16.1 17.9 19.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------