***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.10.2020.-11.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 21.8 21.5 21.0 1.6 67.8 62.8 20.3 20.7 21.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 21.4 21.4 20.8 1.4 62.9 61.5 20.2 20.9 21.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 21.5 22.3 21.2 1.3 64.5 60.7 20.2 21.1 22.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 16.0 16.9 19.2 1.9 69.9 66.9 11.8 13.4 16.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 21.8 22.2 19.6 1.4 63.6 61.5 19.7 21.5 22.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 22.7 22.7 18.5 1.9 69.4 66.2 18.9 20.7 22.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 21.1 21.9 20.9 1.6 65.9 62.9 19.6 20.6 21.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 12.0 12.9 18.7 1.4 62.8 61.4 9.5 11.5 13.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 21.6 22.2 19.9 1.3 60.4 60.3 20.1 21.2 22.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 21.4 21.9 19.2 1.4 62.2 61.0 19.7 20.9 22.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 22.1 22.3 19.7 1.2 61.4 60.1 19.8 21.8 22.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 21.5 22.2 19.6 1.3 61.4 60.6 19.2 21.0 22.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 22.1 23.4 19.1 1.5 64.1 62.1 20.5 21.7 23.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 21.9 22.4 19.8 1.3 61.5 59.5 19.9 21.4 22.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 22.3 23.1 20.0 2.0 72.5 68.5 18.5 20.4 21.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 44 56 100 23.7 23.8 19.5 1.5 65.1 62.5 20.8 22.5 23.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 20.7 21.2 20.5 1.5 63.9 62.3 19.7 20.2 21.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 20.6 21.3 18.8 1.4 61.5 60.3 18.9 20.0 21.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 21.3 21.6 20.9 1.3 62.9 60.8 20.1 20.8 21.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 18.1 18.4 16.8 1.5 61.5 61.4 14.8 17.8 18.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 21.5 22.3 20.6 1.4 64.6 61.7 19.7 21.0 22.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 21.5 21.6 20.4 1.4 62.4 60.8 19.9 20.8 22.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 21.6 21.9 21.1 1.3 64.2 60.3 20.2 21.1 22.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 21.7 22.5 19.9 1.4 62.5 59.9 19.4 21.2 22.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 21.8 21.3 19.6 1.7 69.4 65.0 19.5 20.7 21.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 22.7 23.3 19.5 1.8 68.2 64.8 20.0 21.2 22.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 22.0 22.0 20.4 1.7 68.8 64.3 20.4 21.0 21.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 22.7 23.2 19.6 2.0 71.3 67.6 18.1 20.4 22.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 17.0 17.3 18.0 1.3 60.7 59.5 14.4 16.5 18.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 21.3 21.5 20.8 1.4 63.3 61.4 19.9 20.8 21.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------