***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.09.2020.-04.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 21.9 22.2 22.2 1.4 65.2 62.8 19.4 21.5 22.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 22.7 22.9 21.7 0.9 61.4 58.7 21.1 22.3 23.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 22.4 22.9 22.2 1.0 60.6 59.2 20.5 22.1 23.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 16.5 17.6 20.1 2.1 75.1 68.2 13.4 14.5 14.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 22.9 22.9 20.9 1.3 64.0 61.3 20.9 22.4 23.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 22.7 22.7 20.0 2.2 73.5 68.3 19.0 21.1 22.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 22.4 22.8 21.8 1.2 62.9 61.0 20.6 22.1 22.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 11.7 12.7 19.7 1.5 63.5 62.2 10.4 11.3 12.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 22.5 22.8 21.5 1.2 62.0 60.7 20.5 21.9 23.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 22.3 22.7 20.4 1.5 63.7 62.3 20.6 21.9 22.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 22.7 22.8 21.2 1.1 61.1 59.7 20.6 22.2 23.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 22.1 22.6 20.7 1.3 62.4 61.0 19.8 21.6 23.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 22.9 23.4 20.8 1.2 62.1 60.1 21.3 22.4 23.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 23.1 23.1 21.0 1.0 58.5 58.1 21.0 22.6 23.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 42 58 100 22.9 23.4 22.0 2.0 75.7 68.6 20.5 21.3 22.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 23.5 23.8 20.9 1.3 63.5 61.4 20.9 23.0 23.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 21.9 22.2 21.3 1.0 62.6 59.3 19.9 21.5 22.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 21.8 22.2 19.7 1.4 62.0 61.4 20.2 21.5 22.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 22.3 22.7 22.0 0.9 60.4 58.3 20.6 21.8 23.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 18.3 18.7 17.9 1.5 63.4 62.5 16.0 18.0 18.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 22.5 23.4 22.1 1.3 64.1 61.6 20.8 22.0 23.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 22.5 22.9 21.4 1.0 61.4 58.6 21.0 22.0 23.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 22.4 23.0 22.2 1.0 59.5 58.2 20.5 22.0 23.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 22.7 22.7 21.2 1.2 60.0 59.5 20.5 22.3 23.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 21.9 22.2 21.0 1.5 66.6 63.4 20.7 21.4 22.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 23.3 23.3 20.5 1.7 66.6 64.1 20.8 21.9 23.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 22.3 22.7 21.6 1.5 66.1 63.4 20.7 22.0 22.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 23.4 24.4 21.1 2.2 76.7 69.1 20.3 21.9 22.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 17.2 17.3 18.9 1.2 59.8 59.8 15.4 16.8 17.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 22.2 22.5 21.9 1.0 61.7 59.2 20.8 21.8 23.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------