***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.09.2020.-27.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 2 98 100 24.6 28.7 26.9 5.7 96.9 95.0 21.9 22.9 24.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 4 96 100 25.6 28.2 26.5 5.3 95.9 94.0 21.8 23.2 24.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 4 96 100 26.1 29.5 27.0 5.5 96.7 94.1 21.5 23.6 25.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 2 98 100 18.5 22.7 23.3 5.2 95.7 94.3 15.2 16.0 16.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 3 97 100 26.7 29.5 24.9 5.1 94.6 92.4 21.9 24.3 25.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 3 97 100 25.3 28.9 23.5 5.6 96.8 94.5 21.1 23.0 24.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 4 96 100 25.0 27.6 26.5 5.5 96.9 95.1 21.5 22.6 24.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 4 96 100 15.1 18.2 22.9 4.8 93.2 90.5 10.5 12.9 13.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 3 97 100 26.4 29.5 25.9 5.1 95.3 92.9 21.6 23.2 25.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 3 97 100 26.4 29.3 24.2 5.3 96.2 93.2 21.0 23.0 24.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 3 97 100 26.1 29.0 25.5 5.1 94.3 91.7 21.8 23.3 25.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 4 96 100 25.3 28.3 24.0 4.7 92.9 90.3 21.0 22.3 24.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 5 95 100 26.6 29.2 25.0 4.7 93.8 90.8 22.1 23.3 25.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 4 96 100 26.8 29.4 25.7 5.4 95.8 93.5 21.2 23.1 24.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 2 98 100 25.5 28.4 25.6 4.5 94.2 92.5 22.5 23.2 24.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 3 97 100 27.0 30.2 24.9 4.9 94.6 91.9 22.7 24.1 25.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 4 96 100 24.7 26.7 26.1 5.4 96.4 94.8 21.4 22.1 24.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 4 96 100 24.7 28.3 23.1 5.0 94.4 91.6 20.3 22.3 24.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 4 96 100 25.9 28.3 26.8 5.4 95.7 93.8 21.3 22.6 24.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 6 94 100 20.8 24.0 20.5 4.0 90.4 87.2 15.8 18.7 20.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 3 97 100 26.4 29.6 27.0 5.7 97.2 94.6 21.4 23.5 25.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 3 97 100 26.2 28.0 26.3 5.4 96.7 95.0 21.7 22.8 25.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 4 96 100 26.1 28.8 27.0 5.5 95.3 93.5 21.5 23.3 25.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 4 96 100 26.3 29.5 25.7 5.4 95.8 93.4 21.5 22.8 24.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 4 96 100 24.8 28.5 25.4 5.3 96.2 93.8 21.8 23.0 23.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 3 97 100 26.2 28.2 23.4 4.5 91.4 89.7 21.7 23.6 24.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 3 97 100 24.9 28.0 26.2 5.6 97.0 94.9 21.5 23.0 24.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 2 98 100 25.6 29.6 24.6 5.2 96.1 94.3 22.2 23.6 24.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 4 96 100 20.6 23.6 22.0 4.4 92.1 89.3 15.9 17.3 20.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 4 96 100 25.2 28.1 26.6 5.3 96.2 94.1 21.6 23.0 24.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------