***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.09.2020.-18.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 9.8 10.3 12.8 1.8 81.0 77.8 8.2 8.8 9.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 9.9 10.4 12.0 1.5 78.1 74.8 8.4 8.8 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 12.0 12.3 12.7 1.6 78.1 76.7 10.6 11.3 11.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 7.2 7.5 9.6 1.3 77.7 73.7 5.9 6.6 7.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 9.2 9.8 10.2 1.3 77.4 73.5 7.5 8.1 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 8.3 8.8 8.2 1.3 81.4 75.5 7.0 7.5 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 9.9 10.6 12.2 1.6 80.0 76.4 8.6 8.8 9.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 4.2 4.5 8.2 1.2 76.1 72.1 2.8 3.5 3.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 10.3 10.7 10.3 1.2 74.3 72.1 8.4 9.3 10.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 9.8 9.9 8.8 1.1 75.0 71.4 8.2 9.1 9.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 9.4 9.5 9.5 1.0 72.7 68.9 7.7 8.7 9.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 8.2 8.4 8.9 1.1 75.3 71.4 6.7 7.6 8.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 8.4 8.9 8.3 0.9 69.0 66.2 7.3 8.2 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 10.0 10.2 10.2 1.3 77.2 73.3 8.7 9.4 10.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 10.0 10.3 10.9 1.1 74.7 72.0 8.9 9.2 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 43 57 100 10.2 10.6 9.0 1.0 72.7 69.1 8.8 9.4 10.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 9.9 10.5 11.7 1.4 78.5 74.5 8.5 8.9 9.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 8.7 9.0 8.2 1.2 76.2 71.1 7.2 7.9 8.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 9.7 10.1 12.1 1.5 77.8 74.6 8.4 8.8 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 5.1 5.4 6.7 1.2 74.6 70.6 3.4 4.4 5.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 9.9 10.4 11.8 1.5 77.5 75.7 7.6 8.8 9.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 9.0 9.6 11.7 1.4 78.5 74.2 7.6 8.0 8.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 9.5 9.8 12.0 1.4 77.1 74.2 7.9 8.8 9.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 9.1 9.5 10.1 1.3 77.4 73.3 8.1 8.5 9.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 10.4 10.9 11.7 1.7 81.5 77.9 8.4 9.3 10.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 9.0 9.2 8.3 1.2 75.3 71.9 7.6 8.5 9.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 24 76 100 11.0 11.7 12.3 1.8 82.4 78.5 8.4 9.3 10.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 8.5 8.9 9.8 1.2 76.4 72.9 7.2 7.7 8.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 7.9 8.1 7.6 1.1 74.5 69.7 6.3 6.8 7.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 10.2 10.7 12.4 1.5 77.8 75.6 8.7 9.1 10.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------