***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.10.2020.-18.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 4.6 5.8 9.7 0.0 47.9 49.3 4.8 6.2 7.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 4.6 5.7 9.3 0.0 48.1 49.6 4.6 6.1 7.9 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 7.1 8.0 9.8 0.1 48.0 49.9 6.8 8.4 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 2.7 3.1 6.8 -0.2 43.4 46.7 2.7 3.8 5.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 6.4 5.1 7.1 -0.2 44.5 46.4 4.0 5.7 7.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 3.7 4.3 5.6 -0.1 42.3 47.9 3.4 4.7 6.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 4.6 5.7 9.3 0.0 48.6 48.8 5.0 5.8 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -0.3 0.9 5.6 -0.1 45.0 47.8 -0.4 1.0 3.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 5.3 6.5 7.5 -0.2 46.2 47.1 5.9 6.7 8.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 5.1 6.7 6.1 -0.1 46.1 47.4 5.1 6.7 7.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 4.9 5.9 6.5 -0.3 43.6 45.4 4.4 6.4 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 3.7 4.0 6.0 -0.3 43.6 46.2 3.6 4.9 6.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 4.0 4.6 5.4 -0.4 41.8 44.2 3.3 5.4 7.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 5.6 6.9 7.5 -0.1 49.4 49.0 5.6 6.9 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 5.4 6.7 7.9 -0.2 43.4 46.4 6.3 7.1 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 5.5 6.2 6.0 -0.4 43.1 44.6 5.6 6.8 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 4.8 6.2 9.0 0.0 49.1 49.2 5.4 6.2 7.9 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 4.2 5.6 5.4 -0.2 46.6 46.7 4.7 5.7 6.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 5.2 6.4 9.4 0.1 48.5 50.0 4.7 6.7 8.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 2.5 0.8 3.9 -0.3 43.6 46.0 0.6 1.8 3.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 4.4 5.7 8.9 0.0 47.0 48.7 5.2 5.8 8.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 4.4 5.9 9.0 0.0 49.6 49.4 4.4 5.9 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 5.0 6.3 9.3 0.1 49.4 50.1 5.1 6.3 7.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 5.0 6.0 7.2 -0.1 48.3 48.1 5.2 6.1 6.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 5.3 6.7 8.5 0.0 45.9 48.9 4.7 6.7 7.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 4.9 5.3 5.4 -0.3 43.4 46.4 4.7 5.8 7.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 4.6 5.9 9.1 0.0 46.8 48.5 4.2 6.5 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 3.4 4.3 6.9 -0.2 43.3 46.0 3.6 4.7 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 3.3 4.2 5.0 -0.3 44.4 46.3 3.5 4.5 5.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 5.0 6.8 9.5 0.0 48.2 49.4 4.9 6.9 8.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------