***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.10.2020.-11.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9.1 9.4 11.7 1.0 63.8 61.1 7.9 8.6 9.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 9.7 10.1 10.9 0.7 59.6 58.8 7.8 9.4 10.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 11.8 12.1 11.6 0.8 62.0 60.3 10.1 11.6 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 7.1 7.4 8.8 0.8 63.6 61.2 5.4 6.7 7.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 9.0 8.9 8.9 0.6 59.5 58.3 6.2 8.5 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 7.5 8.2 7.5 0.7 63.7 60.4 5.6 6.9 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 9.5 9.9 11.0 0.8 61.5 59.4 8.0 9.2 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 3.9 4.0 7.4 0.6 58.3 58.3 3.1 3.6 4.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 9.5 9.5 9.2 0.5 57.9 57.6 8.1 9.0 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 9.1 9.1 7.9 0.5 58.1 57.9 7.6 8.8 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 8.5 8.3 8.3 0.4 57.6 56.6 6.9 8.0 9.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 7.3 7.2 7.8 0.4 57.7 56.3 5.8 6.7 7.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 8.1 7.5 7.1 0.2 55.0 53.8 6.0 7.4 8.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 9.5 9.7 9.1 0.5 59.0 57.8 8.3 9.3 10.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 10.5 10.5 9.9 0.8 67.0 62.1 8.1 9.3 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 9.8 9.6 7.7 0.4 58.1 55.7 7.7 9.3 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 9.6 10.0 10.6 0.7 60.8 58.4 8.4 9.2 10.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 8.0 8.1 7.0 0.4 59.1 56.6 6.4 7.7 8.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 9.6 9.7 11.0 0.7 60.2 58.9 8.0 9.3 9.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 4.2 3.9 5.5 0.4 58.3 56.2 2.4 3.7 4.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 8.7 9.1 10.7 0.7 60.2 59.6 7.2 8.2 9.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 8.9 9.0 10.5 0.7 61.6 58.9 7.2 8.6 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 9.3 9.5 11.0 0.7 61.5 59.3 7.7 9.1 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 8.7 8.7 8.8 0.5 59.9 58.0 7.3 8.5 8.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 9.7 10.4 10.5 1.0 63.6 62.2 7.6 9.4 10.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 8.5 8.0 7.1 0.4 55.8 55.9 6.5 7.8 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 9.9 10.6 11.1 1.0 63.7 61.2 7.5 9.5 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 8.9 8.2 8.9 0.8 64.7 61.3 6.5 7.5 8.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 7.7 7.8 6.6 0.4 57.6 56.1 6.6 7.4 8.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 10.1 10.1 11.3 0.8 61.0 59.7 7.9 9.7 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------