***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.09.2020.-04.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 10.1 10.5 12.6 1.0 63.0 59.3 8.6 9.6 11.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 10.6 10.7 11.9 0.6 57.1 55.9 8.5 10.1 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 12.7 12.7 12.5 0.7 59.2 57.0 10.4 12.3 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 8.0 8.4 9.9 1.0 63.4 60.6 5.9 7.5 8.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 9.3 9.2 10.4 0.7 57.3 56.8 7.4 8.6 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 9.4 9.3 8.7 1.3 69.7 64.0 6.8 8.0 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 10.4 11.1 12.1 0.8 60.8 57.9 8.4 9.9 11.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 4.3 4.0 8.2 0.6 54.9 56.1 2.9 3.8 4.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 10.6 10.6 10.5 0.7 57.6 56.5 8.8 10.0 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 10.2 9.8 8.9 0.6 55.8 56.0 8.2 9.7 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 9.6 9.9 9.9 0.6 56.8 56.2 8.1 9.1 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 6.9 8.5 9.0 0.6 56.5 56.4 6.8 8.2 8.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 7.6 9.2 8.8 0.8 60.5 57.9 7.7 8.9 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 10.5 10.5 10.1 0.6 56.0 55.4 8.9 10.1 11.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 10.4 11.2 11.7 1.1 66.6 63.7 8.7 10.1 11.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 10.4 11.0 9.4 0.8 61.0 58.4 8.9 9.9 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 10.6 10.6 11.5 0.6 56.5 55.6 8.1 10.2 11.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 9.1 9.0 8.2 0.5 55.2 55.3 7.0 8.7 9.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 10.1 10.1 11.9 0.6 55.7 55.4 8.4 9.5 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 3.4 4.8 6.7 0.5 52.2 55.0 3.8 4.8 5.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 9.9 10.1 11.8 0.9 62.7 58.5 8.5 9.3 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 9.3 9.5 11.6 0.6 54.8 55.8 8.1 8.9 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 9.6 9.1 11.9 0.6 54.8 55.3 8.0 9.1 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 10.0 9.8 10.1 0.6 55.4 55.8 8.5 9.6 10.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 10.4 11.0 11.7 1.0 64.0 59.5 8.4 9.8 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 7.7 9.6 8.7 0.9 62.5 58.8 7.9 8.8 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 11.1 11.5 12.2 1.1 65.2 60.3 7.9 10.4 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 8.6 9.1 10.3 1.1 65.2 62.3 7.1 8.1 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 6.3 8.1 7.6 0.4 52.5 54.0 6.5 7.7 8.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 10.7 10.7 12.2 0.7 58.3 56.6 8.9 10.0 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------