***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.09.2020.-27.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 12.4 14.6 17.1 5.2 99.6 98.2 10.1 11.0 11.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 12.4 15.3 16.0 4.5 98.8 96.8 10.1 11.0 11.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 14.3 16.9 16.8 4.6 99.0 97.4 12.5 13.0 13.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 10.5 12.7 13.0 3.5 93.3 91.6 7.5 8.3 9.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 1 99 100 11.7 13.0 14.6 4.1 96.7 95.2 9.3 10.1 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 1 99 100 10.7 11.8 11.2 3.3 92.6 91.9 7.9 9.1 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 12.5 14.9 16.3 4.7 99.2 97.3 10.2 11.2 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 2 98 100 6.5 9.4 11.6 3.6 96.4 94.1 4.2 4.8 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 2 98 100 12.6 14.2 14.1 3.7 96.5 94.5 9.7 10.9 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 2 98 100 11.9 13.5 12.4 3.5 95.8 93.8 9.5 10.5 11.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 2 98 100 11.7 12.9 13.4 3.2 93.9 91.4 9.3 10.5 11.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 2 98 100 11.1 11.8 12.7 3.7 95.5 94.0 8.3 9.4 10.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 4 96 100 11.4 12.3 12.0 2.9 90.9 87.9 8.8 10.0 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 1 99 100 12.6 14.0 14.1 4.1 97.2 95.6 10.0 11.2 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 4 96 100 12.2 12.9 14.1 2.5 86.8 85.6 10.1 11.3 11.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 2 98 100 12.3 13.5 12.8 3.3 91.7 90.6 10.4 11.2 11.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 12.4 15.2 15.6 4.4 98.7 96.9 10.2 11.1 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 2 98 100 11.1 12.2 12.0 3.8 96.8 94.8 8.9 9.8 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 12.2 14.7 16.1 4.4 98.5 96.8 10.1 11.0 11.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 1 99 100 7.2 8.6 10.6 4.0 97.1 95.2 5.1 6.3 7.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 1 99 100 12.3 14.7 15.7 4.3 97.7 96.5 9.3 11.0 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 11.3 13.8 15.8 4.2 98.7 96.9 9.4 10.1 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 12.3 14.5 16.0 4.2 98.3 96.3 9.5 10.3 11.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 1 99 100 11.9 13.6 14.1 4.0 97.4 95.6 9.4 10.9 11.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 12.9 15.4 16.3 5.0 98.6 97.6 10.7 11.5 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 11.5 12.6 11.9 3.7 95.2 93.2 8.9 9.9 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 13.7 17.3 16.9 5.4 99.6 98.3 10.4 11.6 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 3 97 100 11.0 12.0 13.0 3.1 90.3 88.8 8.3 9.7 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 2 98 100 10.3 12.6 11.3 3.7 96.5 94.6 7.8 8.6 9.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 12.3 16.3 16.5 4.6 98.7 97.0 10.2 11.2 12.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------