***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.09.2015.-18.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 46.8 54.5 53.9 145.7 78.8 67.3 25.5 36.1 43.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 52.0 58.1 52.5 137.2 77.0 65.5 23.5 36.7 45.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 59.3 72.2 55.5 145.3 79.5 68.6 25.6 41.3 50.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 86.7 106.7 74.9 174.8 84.5 75.2 37.9 63.6 83.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 23 77 100 60.7 71.4 70.4 166.0 83.6 75.2 28.9 49.0 57.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 67.1 80.1 81.9 159.1 81.0 74.2 29.1 44.4 61.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 52.4 56.2 54.1 140.8 75.6 66.8 19.9 36.0 52.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 78.0 99.4 77.8 179.2 89.6 78.3 45.6 65.1 74.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 60.3 70.5 68.3 165.6 84.1 75.2 29.2 40.9 51.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 62.4 82.9 77.0 173.9 87.8 77.7 39.7 50.3 59.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 19 81 100 63.5 75.6 66.6 182.3 85.8 78.4 30.2 41.3 55.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 20 80 100 57.7 74.0 66.4 181.6 86.4 77.7 24.2 48.6 57.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 16 84 100 69.4 78.0 75.1 172.6 85.0 77.7 33.8 42.7 66.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 77.7 87.3 69.7 143.8 79.2 68.6 44.5 63.3 71.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 20 80 100 61.3 86.9 81.9 185.9 88.1 76.0 26.9 37.9 51.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 19 81 100 58.0 77.0 69.5 175.5 85.2 77.0 25.6 38.3 55.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 36.8 45.3 51.4 134.1 70.4 65.1 17.0 34.0 44.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 73.6 88.5 81.4 163.9 86.4 74.5 34.6 47.2 59.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 52.0 58.3 52.3 136.7 77.4 65.9 26.3 40.2 50.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 75.8 95.7 94.7 160.4 86.9 73.6 38.5 52.3 75.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 50.5 60.6 59.0 156.4 82.1 71.6 32.6 38.3 47.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 36.5 50.4 50.9 125.9 68.5 62.8 21.9 31.8 47.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 51.9 58.4 55.1 140.9 77.7 67.4 28.9 35.4 47.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 64.6 74.8 68.7 151.3 82.3 70.2 32.8 50.2 59.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 61.0 71.8 66.3 147.9 79.3 69.0 24.5 41.7 59.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 19 81 100 69.6 83.9 74.8 174.7 84.0 78.3 34.3 45.1 54.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 39.6 60.4 61.5 144.0 77.5 67.3 28.1 34.4 51.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 60.1 69.6 76.2 177.3 85.9 75.2 27.9 47.0 58.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 101.6 125.3 82.6 158.7 85.4 72.5 56.0 67.0 86.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 46.7 52.9 53.8 141.0 76.4 66.7 21.3 30.5 40.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------