***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.10.2015.-18.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 0.9 6.7 10.5 140.0 79.2 53.3 0.1 2.8 3.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 1.1 11.0 10.5 137.7 76.3 51.8 0.0 2.8 8.1 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 2.3 13.5 10.6 141.7 78.7 54.1 0.3 5.0 6.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 9.9 20.8 12.5 143.9 76.2 57.1 1.6 6.3 11.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 8.2 16.2 11.4 134.3 74.3 55.7 0.6 5.2 11.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 2.1 13.4 12.4 109.6 67.5 52.5 1.1 4.5 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 0.8 10.3 10.6 134.9 77.0 52.6 0.3 2.0 8.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 12.9 14.5 11.3 110.9 68.5 52.8 5.9 8.8 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 8.3 14.6 11.6 136.8 76.2 56.0 0.8 6.1 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 11.6 16.0 11.7 120.1 72.0 54.4 4.2 10.0 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 8.6 13.0 10.0 123.0 69.0 54.6 1.3 6.2 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 8.6 13.6 9.6 116.4 68.1 54.2 0.9 6.0 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 3.6 15.3 10.5 112.2 67.4 53.3 1.5 7.9 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 3.4 24.6 12.7 124.3 73.8 53.6 1.6 9.3 14.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 1.3 14.8 14.2 160.2 79.4 57.7 0.5 2.7 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 2.3 11.1 10.3 123.2 69.0 55.0 1.2 4.9 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 1.6 11.7 10.3 131.6 73.3 51.2 0.4 4.2 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 4.5 18.5 12.8 116.2 71.4 54.4 3.8 9.1 16.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 1.2 13.9 10.7 142.2 76.8 52.7 0.6 2.9 8.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 4.0 13.8 15.3 107.3 65.4 52.8 4.6 8.8 13.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 2.6 10.5 10.5 138.1 78.4 55.0 1.7 5.4 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 2.5 11.0 10.9 138.2 71.3 51.9 0.2 5.7 8.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 1.0 14.6 11.0 142.4 77.6 54.4 0.4 2.7 7.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 2.5 15.1 11.9 124.7 73.6 54.4 2.5 5.4 11.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 1.5 13.3 11.8 133.8 77.6 54.3 0.8 3.5 6.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 4.1 17.5 10.3 105.2 63.6 51.5 1.9 8.5 17.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 1.4 10.5 11.4 132.8 76.4 53.4 1.2 3.8 6.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 1.9 19.0 12.8 148.3 76.0 57.5 1.2 4.0 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 6.2 22.4 13.4 112.3 71.0 53.3 8.5 12.6 21.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 0.7 14.1 10.8 142.8 79.0 53.4 0.4 1.7 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------