***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.10.2015.-11.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 7.7 7.6 10.1 110.2 68.5 52.7 1.4 5.4 6.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 11.3 14.3 9.9 99.6 65.2 52.2 3.0 9.0 14.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 10.4 13.7 9.8 103.2 68.3 51.6 2.3 7.1 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 14.2 20.4 15.1 139.2 74.1 58.4 3.3 11.3 14.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 8.2 10.3 13.4 126.6 69.4 54.6 2.4 5.3 8.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 10.6 19.6 18.1 137.2 74.7 57.9 2.8 5.9 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 11.7 14.9 10.1 100.2 66.3 52.1 1.9 10.0 14.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 6.5 17.1 17.0 146.0 75.9 55.4 6.3 10.6 14.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 11.1 14.1 13.0 123.1 70.6 56.6 2.3 8.7 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 4.2 18.8 15.4 133.8 73.0 55.0 3.0 8.6 13.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 7.8 17.9 13.4 137.9 76.0 54.2 1.6 3.9 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 1.5 17.6 14.6 148.5 77.9 56.2 1.1 3.1 14.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 9.3 18.2 15.7 141.1 73.8 56.7 1.7 4.9 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 14.6 18.9 13.6 110.2 70.3 53.2 3.1 8.8 17.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 10.0 14.4 16.6 149.6 81.1 61.2 0.9 3.7 12.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 1.3 24.4 14.6 144.8 75.9 56.9 1.2 2.7 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 3.8 11.1 10.5 98.4 66.3 53.3 0.5 7.9 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 5.3 21.7 16.7 132.6 73.0 56.3 6.4 10.4 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 9.8 16.9 9.8 99.8 64.5 52.5 2.0 6.6 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 14.0 23.6 22.2 145.1 76.4 58.3 5.5 10.9 17.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 11.3 14.6 11.1 114.7 70.6 54.6 3.3 8.9 14.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 11.2 12.9 10.3 91.3 63.8 50.8 0.3 8.4 14.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 10.3 10.1 10.2 104.1 64.9 53.8 2.0 7.3 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 3.0 20.6 13.3 116.4 71.3 53.3 3.4 5.6 15.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 11.4 11.9 12.7 116.8 66.0 54.2 4.8 10.5 11.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.0 18.7 16.1 145.9 75.9 59.2 1.0 5.8 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 7.3 9.4 11.6 111.2 66.8 53.5 2.0 4.4 9.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 5.3 14.1 16.3 149.8 78.7 59.8 0.4 2.7 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 19.0 28.5 18.1 137.4 73.5 57.2 7.2 15.9 21.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 10.8 11.0 9.7 100.8 65.7 52.0 1.8 9.0 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------