***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.09.2015.-04.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 10.0 9.1 10.3 91.9 60.5 49.6 0.9 7.5 10.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 7.8 8.8 10.3 84.5 58.0 47.4 0.9 5.2 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 10.5 9.3 10.3 83.7 61.4 45.9 3.3 7.5 11.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 19.4 18.5 14.7 110.5 65.9 54.5 6.1 14.5 18.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 4.8 18.7 13.1 106.4 64.9 50.2 5.8 10.4 19.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 12.7 23.5 17.6 117.2 67.2 56.4 1.8 7.4 22.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 7.9 10.4 10.9 91.3 58.8 48.0 0.7 5.8 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 8.0 25.4 14.4 130.4 72.3 57.0 6.0 16.3 22.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 12.8 13.2 13.5 112.7 66.5 53.3 4.7 11.1 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 7.5 22.4 14.7 122.7 71.7 54.9 6.9 14.3 20.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 6.4 23.9 11.2 117.1 71.1 53.6 3.6 12.7 21.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 11.7 22.9 11.8 132.1 74.1 57.2 2.5 6.3 15.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 11.5 20.6 13.9 120.0 72.7 55.3 1.9 7.3 16.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 14.3 14.0 13.8 91.0 58.5 48.8 7.6 11.0 21.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 3.0 19.8 16.7 122.5 71.6 53.4 1.9 6.1 15.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 3.6 18.2 12.5 115.9 70.2 54.3 1.4 7.4 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 1.9 8.8 10.3 85.8 56.5 46.1 0.4 3.8 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 12.8 18.6 17.5 127.8 70.9 57.7 5.3 10.5 18.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 8.8 9.9 9.8 79.7 57.3 46.9 3.2 7.0 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 14.0 22.8 22.7 144.4 75.4 61.9 5.5 11.5 15.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 5.5 18.2 11.6 101.9 65.4 51.0 4.2 10.3 18.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 7.4 7.5 10.0 78.9 55.8 46.4 0.9 5.5 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 9.9 9.6 9.9 77.8 57.9 46.7 4.3 8.0 12.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 12.9 13.8 13.9 100.7 62.2 50.7 3.9 10.6 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 4.0 16.8 12.8 92.7 57.5 47.3 1.6 9.1 22.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.9 17.4 12.9 119.1 70.5 54.6 1.4 5.1 15.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 2.8 11.2 12.1 93.3 57.7 48.2 1.5 5.9 13.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 14.5 25.0 15.2 116.1 69.6 55.3 4.4 9.8 17.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 18.8 29.5 18.6 128.8 68.4 57.9 8.0 15.3 29.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 7.5 9.4 10.3 85.5 60.3 47.9 1.3 5.4 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------