***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.09.2015.-27.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 10 90 100 19.4 27.8 23.0 251.4 87.6 82.6 2.4 5.8 14.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 20 80 100 13.5 29.5 21.8 256.7 88.7 81.2 1.9 4.9 9.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 14 86 100 17.0 32.0 24.8 279.3 91.9 84.4 3.5 6.8 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 6 94 100 24.6 44.0 32.6 326.6 94.1 87.5 2.4 6.7 12.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 7 93 100 14.4 34.7 32.6 295.6 94.3 87.8 1.6 4.9 10.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 12 88 100 9.1 30.5 33.9 281.3 91.9 85.9 0.8 3.1 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 16 84 100 14.1 28.6 22.5 264.1 88.3 80.5 2.1 2.8 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 10 90 100 22.8 59.0 35.2 325.8 94.6 88.2 4.5 9.5 12.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 6 94 100 15.9 28.3 30.3 295.0 94.2 88.1 1.7 3.2 9.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 6 94 100 21.8 34.4 35.2 317.1 94.5 89.4 1.1 6.7 18.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 8 92 100 12.9 30.8 32.0 354.3 95.3 89.8 1.0 3.3 6.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 13 87 100 10.4 34.6 30.4 321.2 94.5 87.4 1.0 4.3 7.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 12 88 100 14.8 30.9 35.0 306.5 93.1 89.1 1.2 3.7 7.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 14 86 100 17.4 49.0 29.6 276.0 91.4 83.3 1.3 4.9 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 11 89 100 14.3 34.9 34.4 328.3 94.8 85.8 1.1 2.8 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 10 90 100 8.9 30.2 32.2 310.2 92.9 88.2 1.8 2.8 5.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 22 78 100 11.0 24.0 20.3 260.4 87.5 80.2 0.9 3.3 7.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 11 89 100 16.5 43.6 34.5 278.4 93.2 87.2 2.2 5.3 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 20 80 100 18.2 29.8 22.0 256.9 89.2 81.4 1.9 4.1 7.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 11 89 100 22.7 42.8 34.5 246.6 89.4 84.4 3.2 8.7 13.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 10 90 100 17.9 34.8 25.8 285.6 92.5 85.8 2.2 4.8 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 15.0 24.5 19.6 229.7 86.6 78.0 0.6 5.8 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 21 79 100 18.9 35.1 23.9 272.2 92.0 81.9 2.7 4.6 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 13 87 100 16.5 48.3 29.6 282.1 93.0 85.7 1.8 5.0 9.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 10 90 100 14.0 29.0 29.1 255.0 90.5 83.2 2.6 7.8 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 4 96 100 16.4 34.4 35.5 317.2 94.6 90.9 1.0 3.2 7.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 12 88 100 16.7 26.2 26.4 246.2 88.6 82.2 3.6 5.9 15.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 7 93 100 13.0 29.4 31.9 306.1 93.7 86.4 0.3 4.8 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 14 86 100 30.0 65.1 32.5 260.0 91.0 85.0 4.2 8.9 19.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 13 87 100 14.7 24.4 22.9 259.8 90.4 81.7 1.1 4.9 9.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------