***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.09.2015.-18.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 21.1 21.5 20.2 0.7 66.0 61.8 20.3 21.0 21.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 21.4 21.7 20.1 0.4 61.7 57.6 20.6 21.2 21.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 21.5 21.6 20.0 0.4 60.6 57.2 20.6 21.4 21.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 14.2 14.2 17.9 0.3 58.4 57.4 13.3 13.9 14.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 21.5 21.5 18.4 0.3 58.0 56.4 20.9 21.4 21.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 20.7 21.1 17.0 0.6 61.5 59.4 19.9 20.5 21.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 21.1 21.3 20.2 0.5 63.4 59.4 20.0 20.9 21.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 11.4 11.4 17.0 0.4 61.0 56.1 10.6 11.1 11.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 21.4 21.6 19.0 0.5 58.9 57.4 20.8 21.3 21.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 21.2 21.5 17.8 0.4 59.4 56.2 20.5 21.0 21.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 21.4 21.6 18.2 0.4 58.9 55.8 20.7 21.2 21.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 21.1 21.3 17.9 0.4 60.4 55.4 19.9 21.0 21.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 21.6 21.7 17.7 0.3 57.4 55.0 21.0 21.4 22.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 21.9 22.1 18.6 0.2 56.2 53.6 20.8 21.7 22.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 21.1 21.4 18.5 0.3 62.7 58.3 20.1 20.9 21.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 22.3 22.2 18.0 0.3 57.5 55.4 21.5 22.1 22.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 20.8 20.8 19.6 0.1 57.7 54.2 19.8 20.6 21.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 20.6 20.6 17.2 0.4 58.1 55.9 19.9 20.3 20.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 21.3 21.5 20.2 0.4 61.3 57.2 20.3 21.1 21.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 17.1 17.3 15.3 0.5 60.8 57.1 16.1 16.8 17.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 21.4 21.5 19.7 0.5 60.5 58.3 20.7 21.2 21.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 21.6 21.5 19.5 0.0 55.8 52.4 20.4 21.4 21.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 21.5 21.9 20.0 0.4 61.6 57.4 20.5 21.3 22.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 21.6 21.8 18.6 0.3 56.7 55.0 20.6 21.4 21.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 20.9 20.9 18.7 0.7 63.9 61.9 20.3 20.8 21.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 21.5 21.5 17.5 0.2 56.4 53.9 20.6 21.3 22.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 21.2 21.7 19.6 0.8 67.1 63.3 20.3 21.0 21.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 21.0 20.8 18.2 0.2 57.7 56.1 20.2 20.6 21.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 16.3 16.5 16.4 0.4 59.4 56.3 15.4 16.0 16.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 21.1 21.5 20.3 0.5 62.9 58.9 20.2 20.9 21.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------