***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.10.2015.-18.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 16.3 18.1 17.7 0.0 51.0 51.1 16.2 18.0 20.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 19.3 18.7 17.8 0.0 51.2 51.0 16.4 18.4 19.4 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 16.2 18.2 17.8 0.0 50.6 50.9 16.7 18.1 20.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 11.7 11.3 15.5 -0.3 47.5 48.8 9.6 11.3 12.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 16.3 17.9 16.1 -0.1 48.7 50.4 16.9 18.0 19.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 18.1 17.3 15.0 0.2 52.3 52.9 16.0 17.0 18.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 18.6 18.2 17.7 0.0 53.5 51.2 16.0 17.7 19.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 6.8 8.9 15.2 0.3 53.5 53.2 7.1 8.8 10.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 16.4 18.1 16.7 0.0 49.1 51.8 16.6 18.4 19.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 16.1 18.0 15.8 0.2 51.1 52.5 16.5 18.0 19.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 16.3 18.0 16.0 0.0 50.1 51.2 16.4 18.0 19.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 15.6 18.4 15.9 0.2 52.3 52.3 16.1 17.6 19.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 18.7 17.9 15.5 0.1 50.2 51.9 16.7 17.9 19.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 16.7 19.1 16.7 0.1 50.8 51.7 17.2 19.1 20.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 18.0 17.6 15.7 -0.4 49.7 48.5 16.2 17.6 18.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 17.0 18.8 15.7 -0.1 50.1 50.7 16.9 18.8 19.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 18.3 17.4 17.3 -0.2 50.5 49.4 16.2 17.4 19.1 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 15.9 18.3 15.5 0.3 52.3 53.4 16.0 17.7 19.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 16.3 18.3 17.9 0.0 50.5 51.2 16.5 18.3 19.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 12.5 15.1 13.6 0.5 53.5 54.7 12.4 14.7 16.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 16.2 18.3 17.3 0.0 49.3 51.2 16.6 18.4 19.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 19.3 18.4 17.4 -0.1 49.5 49.3 16.8 18.4 19.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 16.4 18.4 17.9 0.1 48.8 51.8 16.9 18.5 20.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 16.4 19.0 16.7 0.1 51.2 52.3 16.6 18.8 20.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 15.9 17.5 16.1 -0.1 52.2 50.7 16.3 17.4 18.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 16.1 17.9 15.4 0.1 53.3 52.4 16.8 17.5 19.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 16.4 18.1 16.9 0.0 53.2 51.5 16.5 18.0 19.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 18.2 17.7 15.7 -0.3 48.4 48.5 16.5 17.8 18.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 11.4 14.4 14.8 0.4 52.6 54.0 11.6 13.8 15.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 18.8 18.4 17.9 0.0 51.9 51.2 16.1 17.9 19.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------