***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.10.2015.-11.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 21.1 20.9 19.2 0.5 57.4 54.7 20.3 20.7 21.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 21.5 21.2 19.2 0.4 56.4 53.7 20.2 20.9 21.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 21.5 21.6 19.2 0.4 55.9 54.0 20.2 21.1 22.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 14.4 13.4 16.9 0.2 50.2 51.5 11.8 13.4 16.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 21.9 21.6 17.3 0.3 53.1 52.5 19.7 21.5 22.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 21.3 20.8 16.0 0.3 52.0 52.5 18.9 20.7 22.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 21.1 20.8 19.1 0.4 56.8 53.9 19.6 20.6 21.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 12.1 11.7 16.2 0.3 52.9 52.6 9.5 11.5 13.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 21.7 21.5 18.0 0.4 55.6 53.6 20.1 21.2 22.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 21.4 21.2 16.9 0.4 53.9 53.1 19.7 20.9 22.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 22.2 22.1 17.2 0.3 53.2 52.7 19.8 21.8 22.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 21.5 21.2 17.0 0.2 52.3 52.2 19.2 21.0 22.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 22.2 22.0 16.6 0.1 52.2 51.3 20.5 21.7 23.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 21.9 21.8 17.9 0.4 53.7 53.0 19.9 21.4 22.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 21.1 20.4 17.0 0.1 50.7 51.2 18.5 20.4 21.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 22.9 22.5 16.9 0.2 51.9 52.0 20.8 22.5 23.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 20.8 20.5 18.6 0.0 53.8 50.9 19.7 20.2 21.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 20.6 20.1 16.5 0.4 54.4 53.2 18.9 20.0 21.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 21.4 21.0 19.3 0.4 56.6 54.1 20.1 20.8 21.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 18.2 18.0 14.5 0.3 54.0 52.7 14.8 17.8 18.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 21.5 21.5 18.6 0.4 55.5 53.9 19.7 21.0 22.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 21.5 21.0 18.6 0.1 52.4 51.4 19.9 20.8 22.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 21.6 21.3 19.3 0.5 56.0 54.9 20.2 21.1 22.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 21.7 21.4 17.9 0.4 53.6 53.3 19.4 21.2 22.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 21.1 20.8 17.5 0.4 54.7 54.0 19.5 20.7 21.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 21.7 21.1 16.5 0.0 49.9 49.9 20.0 21.2 22.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 21.4 21.4 18.4 0.5 55.6 54.6 20.4 21.0 21.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 21.3 20.4 17.0 0.1 49.9 51.4 18.1 20.4 22.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 17.0 16.9 15.7 0.4 54.6 53.1 14.4 16.5 18.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 21.3 21.1 19.3 0.4 56.7 54.2 19.9 20.8 21.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------