***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.09.2015.-04.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 21.9 22.1 22.0 1.5 62.8 64.8 19.4 21.5 22.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 22.7 23.0 22.0 1.4 63.6 63.0 21.1 22.3 23.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 22.4 22.6 21.8 1.2 58.2 61.4 20.5 22.1 23.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 15.2 14.8 19.6 0.8 63.2 59.8 13.4 14.5 14.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 22.9 22.6 20.0 1.0 60.4 59.8 20.9 22.4 23.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 43 57 100 22.6 21.8 18.7 1.1 61.4 60.7 19.0 21.1 22.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 43 57 100 22.9 22.9 22.0 1.5 66.8 64.7 20.6 22.1 22.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 11.7 12.4 18.9 1.2 60.1 61.3 10.4 11.3 12.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 22.5 22.6 20.6 1.2 60.2 60.8 20.5 21.9 23.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 22.3 22.3 19.5 1.2 60.1 60.8 20.6 21.9 22.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 22.7 22.7 19.8 1.1 60.7 60.0 20.6 22.2 23.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 22.1 22.3 19.7 1.1 58.5 60.1 19.8 21.6 23.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 22.8 23.0 19.4 1.0 56.9 59.0 21.3 22.4 23.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 23.1 23.2 20.3 1.2 59.8 60.4 21.0 22.6 23.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 22.9 22.2 19.7 0.8 64.7 59.8 20.5 21.3 22.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 23.4 23.6 19.6 1.0 59.8 59.0 20.9 23.0 23.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 21.8 22.3 21.5 1.2 63.6 61.4 19.9 21.5 22.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 21.8 22.0 19.0 1.3 59.8 61.4 20.2 21.5 22.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 22.2 23.1 22.0 1.3 61.8 62.4 20.6 21.8 23.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 19.0 18.6 17.2 1.5 62.9 64.0 16.0 18.0 18.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 22.4 22.7 21.2 1.2 59.9 61.5 20.8 22.0 23.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 22.4 22.9 21.3 1.1 59.9 60.2 21.0 22.0 23.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 22.4 23.2 21.8 1.3 60.4 62.2 20.5 22.0 23.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 22.6 22.4 20.3 1.2 58.1 60.4 20.5 22.3 23.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 21.9 21.9 20.3 1.4 62.6 64.2 20.7 21.4 22.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 87 13 100 22.2 22.5 19.3 1.0 57.8 58.1 20.8 21.9 23.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 43 57 100 23.2 22.6 21.3 1.6 65.2 66.2 20.7 22.0 22.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 22.4 22.1 19.7 0.7 61.7 58.6 20.3 21.9 22.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 17.2 17.4 18.3 1.4 61.5 63.0 15.4 16.8 17.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 22.2 22.8 22.1 1.4 63.1 63.3 20.8 21.8 23.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------