***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.09.2015.-27.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 88 12 100 23.1 23.8 22.1 0.6 62.0 59.3 21.9 22.9 24.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 23.6 24.0 21.7 -0.2 57.9 53.6 21.8 23.2 24.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 24.0 23.7 21.5 -0.1 53.3 51.5 21.5 23.6 25.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 87 13 100 16.4 16.5 19.5 0.5 61.7 59.0 15.2 16.0 16.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 24.7 24.4 20.1 0.2 51.4 51.8 21.9 24.3 25.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 23.3 23.8 18.6 0.8 60.2 60.8 21.1 23.0 24.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 89 11 100 22.9 24.0 21.9 0.2 60.3 56.9 21.5 22.6 24.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 87 13 100 13.2 12.6 17.9 -0.1 46.1 47.9 10.5 12.9 13.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 23.7 23.7 20.8 0.1 52.4 51.7 21.6 23.2 25.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 23.6 22.6 18.9 -0.1 46.4 48.3 21.0 23.0 24.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 23.7 22.9 19.7 0.0 47.2 49.7 21.8 23.3 25.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 87 13 100 22.7 22.2 18.9 0.0 48.1 49.2 21.0 22.3 24.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 89 11 100 23.7 23.2 19.4 0.1 49.0 50.5 22.1 23.3 25.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 23.9 22.3 19.4 -1.0 42.4 41.8 21.2 23.1 24.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 45 55 100 24.5 24.6 21.7 0.8 66.7 64.7 22.5 23.2 24.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 87 13 100 24.5 24.0 19.7 0.2 48.4 51.3 22.7 24.1 25.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 88 12 100 22.4 23.3 20.9 -0.5 54.8 50.5 21.4 22.1 24.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 22.7 21.6 17.8 -0.5 43.8 45.0 20.3 22.3 24.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 23.2 23.5 21.5 -0.3 55.8 51.6 21.3 22.6 24.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 19.1 17.9 16.1 -0.3 44.5 45.8 15.8 18.7 20.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 24.0 24.0 21.5 0.2 53.3 53.0 21.4 23.5 25.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 23.3 22.8 20.6 -0.8 49.5 46.4 21.7 22.8 25.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 23.9 23.6 21.1 -0.4 53.8 49.9 21.5 23.3 25.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 23.5 22.3 19.5 -0.6 44.0 44.5 21.5 22.8 24.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 23.3 23.7 21.0 0.9 62.9 61.5 21.8 23.0 23.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 88 12 100 24.0 23.6 18.6 -0.1 48.6 49.3 21.7 23.6 24.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 23.3 24.3 21.7 0.9 64.4 62.1 21.5 23.0 24.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 86 14 100 23.9 23.8 20.4 0.5 59.3 58.3 22.2 23.6 24.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 17.9 16.9 17.1 -0.5 43.2 44.5 15.9 17.3 20.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 87 13 100 23.3 24.3 21.9 0.1 59.1 55.6 21.6 23.0 24.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------