***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.09.2015.-18.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 24 76 100 9.9 10.3 12.6 1.6 79.9 78.2 8.2 8.8 9.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 9.9 10.3 12.2 1.4 77.2 75.0 8.4 8.8 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 12.0 12.3 12.3 1.5 78.1 77.4 10.6 11.3 11.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 14 86 100 7.4 8.0 10.1 1.5 84.9 81.1 5.9 6.6 7.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 13 87 100 9.6 10.3 10.1 1.6 85.8 81.0 7.5 8.1 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 14 86 100 8.5 9.1 8.5 1.6 87.6 83.2 7.0 7.5 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 10.0 10.3 12.2 1.4 76.4 74.4 8.6 8.8 9.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 16 84 100 4.3 5.0 8.7 1.7 87.4 83.3 2.8 3.5 3.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 15 85 100 10.6 11.0 10.7 1.7 86.2 82.4 8.4 9.3 10.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 16 84 100 10.0 10.7 9.3 1.6 87.2 82.5 8.2 9.1 9.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 13 87 100 9.7 10.0 9.7 1.6 86.1 81.7 7.7 8.7 9.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 16 84 100 8.4 8.9 9.4 1.6 86.4 82.9 6.7 7.6 8.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 12 88 100 8.9 9.5 9.0 1.5 84.9 81.5 7.3 8.2 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 22 78 100 10.1 10.7 10.5 1.4 83.4 78.8 8.7 9.4 10.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 10 90 100 10.2 10.4 11.0 1.6 88.6 83.6 8.9 9.2 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 12 88 100 10.6 10.9 9.4 1.5 84.9 81.4 8.8 9.4 10.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 10.1 10.5 11.7 1.3 76.5 73.9 8.5 8.9 9.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 20 80 100 8.9 9.7 8.7 1.6 87.0 81.2 7.2 7.9 8.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 9.7 10.1 12.2 1.4 79.3 76.1 8.4 8.8 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 18 82 100 5.2 5.9 7.1 1.6 86.1 80.7 3.4 4.4 5.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 23 77 100 10.0 10.6 11.8 1.6 83.3 80.2 7.6 8.8 9.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 9.1 9.3 11.7 1.2 76.0 73.7 7.6 8.0 8.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 9.5 10.1 12.0 1.5 82.3 77.5 7.9 8.8 9.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 22 78 100 9.3 9.8 10.5 1.5 83.7 79.9 8.1 8.5 9.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 21 79 100 10.5 11.0 11.4 1.7 82.6 80.9 8.4 9.3 10.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 15 85 100 9.2 9.4 9.0 1.5 84.4 80.5 7.6 8.5 9.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 23 77 100 11.0 11.7 12.0 1.7 81.6 79.8 8.4 9.3 10.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 12 88 100 8.8 9.0 10.3 1.5 84.4 80.9 7.2 7.7 8.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 19 81 100 8.2 9.0 8.2 1.6 87.3 81.5 6.3 6.8 7.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 10.3 10.7 12.4 1.4 77.5 75.5 8.7 9.1 10.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------