***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.10.2015.-18.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 6.8 7.7 10.0 0.7 64.3 58.9 4.8 6.2 7.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 6.7 7.1 9.7 0.5 60.9 57.7 4.6 6.1 7.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 8.9 10.0 9.7 0.6 63.1 58.8 6.8 8.4 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 4.2 4.8 7.3 0.5 59.7 57.6 2.7 3.8 5.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 6.4 7.0 7.3 0.6 62.6 58.9 4.0 5.7 7.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 5.4 6.0 6.0 0.7 62.4 60.7 3.4 4.7 6.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 6.4 7.5 9.6 0.5 60.2 57.2 5.0 5.8 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 3.1 3.2 6.2 0.8 66.2 62.6 -0.4 1.0 3.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 7.1 7.9 7.9 0.7 64.0 60.1 5.9 6.7 8.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 8.0 7.5 6.7 0.8 64.6 61.4 5.1 6.7 7.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 7.8 6.8 7.0 0.6 62.4 59.8 4.4 6.4 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 6.6 6.1 6.9 0.8 63.8 61.7 3.6 4.9 6.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 6.1 6.8 6.4 0.7 60.7 60.5 3.3 5.4 7.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 7.4 7.8 8.1 0.7 63.0 60.7 5.6 6.9 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 7.4 8.0 7.9 0.5 60.5 58.0 6.3 7.1 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 7.4 7.9 6.7 0.6 60.6 59.3 5.6 6.8 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 6.6 7.0 9.2 0.5 58.9 56.8 5.4 6.2 7.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 7.0 6.6 6.4 0.8 66.3 62.5 4.7 5.7 6.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 7.1 7.9 9.7 0.6 62.8 58.8 4.7 6.7 8.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 3.5 3.0 4.9 0.9 65.4 62.7 0.6 1.8 3.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 6.4 7.8 9.1 0.7 64.4 59.7 5.2 5.8 8.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 6.2 6.8 9.3 0.5 60.6 57.6 4.4 5.9 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 7.0 7.6 9.5 0.7 63.3 60.1 5.1 6.3 7.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 6.4 6.9 8.0 0.7 65.2 61.1 5.2 6.1 6.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 7.4 7.3 8.5 0.6 63.2 59.5 4.7 6.7 7.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 7.2 6.4 6.7 0.6 62.3 60.4 4.7 5.8 7.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 7.1 7.7 9.2 0.6 63.0 59.3 4.2 6.5 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 5.4 5.5 7.4 0.4 58.3 57.1 3.6 4.7 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 5.9 5.6 5.9 0.9 65.6 62.5 3.5 4.5 5.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 7.4 7.5 9.9 0.5 61.5 57.8 4.9 6.9 8.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------