***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.10.2015.-11.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9.2 9.3 11.4 0.8 61.9 57.8 7.9 8.6 9.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 9.7 10.0 11.0 0.6 58.9 56.3 7.8 9.4 10.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 11.8 12.1 11.2 0.7 60.7 57.9 10.1 11.6 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 5.2 7.1 8.8 0.6 58.3 57.9 5.4 6.7 7.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 9.0 8.9 8.8 0.7 60.5 58.9 6.2 8.5 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 8.5 8.2 7.3 0.9 62.5 61.3 5.6 6.9 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 9.5 9.8 11.0 0.7 57.6 56.2 8.0 9.2 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 4.6 4.5 7.6 1.0 62.6 62.2 3.1 3.6 4.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 9.6 9.6 9.4 0.8 59.8 59.7 8.1 9.0 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 9.8 9.1 8.1 0.9 60.6 61.3 7.6 8.8 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 9.3 8.7 8.5 0.8 61.4 60.8 6.9 8.0 9.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 8.3 7.7 8.4 1.0 63.9 62.4 5.8 6.7 7.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 9.0 8.0 7.9 1.0 60.2 62.3 6.0 7.4 8.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 9.6 9.7 9.4 0.8 61.5 59.9 8.3 9.3 10.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 9.7 10.0 9.3 0.6 59.2 58.8 8.1 9.3 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 10.6 9.7 8.2 0.8 60.6 61.0 7.7 9.3 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 7.8 9.7 10.5 0.6 58.2 55.2 8.4 9.2 10.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 8.7 8.3 7.7 0.9 60.5 61.0 6.4 7.7 8.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 9.6 9.8 11.1 0.7 60.5 57.1 8.0 9.3 9.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 5.4 4.0 6.1 0.9 59.1 60.0 2.4 3.7 4.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 8.8 8.9 10.5 0.8 58.7 58.6 7.2 8.2 9.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 7.0 8.9 10.5 0.6 60.2 55.8 7.2 8.6 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 9.3 9.5 10.9 0.8 61.4 58.8 7.7 9.1 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 8.8 8.7 9.4 0.8 60.7 60.3 7.3 8.5 8.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 9.8 10.3 9.9 0.7 57.6 58.3 7.6 9.4 10.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 9.5 8.3 8.1 1.0 62.9 62.3 6.5 7.8 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 10.0 10.1 10.6 0.8 60.0 58.3 7.5 9.5 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 8.0 7.8 8.9 0.6 59.1 58.3 6.5 7.5 8.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 8.2 8.0 7.2 1.0 61.0 61.2 6.6 7.4 8.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 10.1 10.0 11.3 0.7 59.3 56.8 7.9 9.7 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------