***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.09.2015.-04.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 11.2 11.8 14.1 2.2 78.9 75.5 8.6 9.6 11.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 11.6 12.2 13.7 2.0 76.5 74.5 8.5 10.1 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 13.6 14.0 13.8 2.1 79.5 76.2 10.4 12.3 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 23 77 100 9.2 9.9 11.5 2.0 81.4 77.1 5.9 7.5 8.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 10.7 11.5 11.3 2.0 79.0 76.2 7.4 8.6 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 18 82 100 9.8 10.2 9.7 2.1 79.2 77.7 6.8 8.0 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 11.4 12.0 13.6 1.9 75.5 73.2 8.4 9.9 11.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 13 87 100 5.4 5.7 9.8 2.1 80.1 78.8 2.9 3.8 4.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 22 78 100 11.9 12.5 11.7 2.1 79.7 76.5 8.8 10.0 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 17 83 100 11.2 11.6 10.4 2.1 80.2 77.6 8.2 9.7 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 17 83 100 10.8 11.2 10.8 2.0 78.8 76.4 8.1 9.1 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 14 86 100 9.5 9.7 10.5 2.0 77.2 76.7 6.8 8.2 8.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 23 77 100 10.2 10.2 9.8 1.8 74.3 73.1 7.7 8.9 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 25 75 100 11.4 11.9 11.8 2.0 78.1 76.8 8.9 10.1 11.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 21 79 100 11.4 12.1 12.0 2.0 81.2 78.6 8.7 10.1 11.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 22 78 100 11.6 12.0 10.4 1.8 75.8 74.2 8.9 9.9 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 11.5 11.8 13.1 1.9 75.5 73.6 8.1 10.2 11.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 16 84 100 10.3 10.7 9.9 2.0 78.9 76.9 7.0 8.7 9.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 11.5 12.3 13.7 2.1 78.3 75.9 8.4 9.5 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 20 80 100 6.2 6.5 8.3 2.1 77.5 76.6 3.8 4.8 5.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 11.3 12.2 13.1 2.2 79.9 76.9 8.5 9.3 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 10.4 10.8 13.1 1.9 76.2 74.4 8.1 8.9 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 10.6 11.3 13.4 2.1 80.6 77.2 8.0 9.1 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 21 79 100 11.0 11.4 11.7 2.0 79.4 77.0 8.5 9.6 10.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 26 74 100 11.6 12.5 12.7 2.2 82.3 78.1 8.4 9.8 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 9.8 9.8 10.1 1.7 71.3 73.2 7.9 8.8 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 12.5 13.4 13.3 2.2 80.7 76.4 7.9 10.4 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 23 77 100 9.9 10.4 11.5 1.9 78.4 75.9 7.1 8.1 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 18 82 100 9.2 9.5 9.3 2.0 77.5 76.8 6.5 7.7 8.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 12.0 12.8 13.9 2.0 77.2 74.6 8.9 10.0 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------