***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.09.2015.-27.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 9 91 100 12.3 13.2 15.1 2.9 90.9 88.8 10.1 11.0 11.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 13 87 100 12.2 13.8 14.3 2.4 86.9 83.8 10.1 11.0 11.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 9 91 100 14.2 15.7 14.7 2.4 87.6 84.9 12.5 13.0 13.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 10.5 13.0 12.8 3.0 96.0 93.3 7.5 8.3 9.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 2 98 100 11.7 13.0 13.1 2.9 95.4 92.0 9.3 10.1 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 10.7 12.0 11.0 2.9 94.9 92.8 7.9 9.1 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 7 93 100 12.4 13.4 14.5 2.5 86.0 84.7 10.2 11.2 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 3 97 100 6.4 9.4 11.1 2.8 94.6 91.7 4.2 4.8 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 2 98 100 12.6 14.6 13.6 3.1 99.0 93.6 9.7 10.9 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 4 96 100 11.9 13.5 12.0 2.9 95.7 92.0 9.5 10.5 11.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 2 98 100 11.7 13.1 12.6 2.9 96.5 92.7 9.3 10.5 11.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 2 98 100 11.1 11.8 11.9 2.8 95.1 92.1 8.3 9.4 10.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 2 98 100 11.4 12.3 11.7 2.7 91.7 90.8 8.8 10.0 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 10 90 100 12.5 13.0 12.8 2.3 86.0 84.6 10.0 11.2 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 12.2 13.9 14.7 3.3 98.4 96.0 10.1 11.3 11.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 2 98 100 12.3 13.9 12.3 2.8 95.5 92.5 10.4 11.2 11.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 9 91 100 12.3 13.5 13.8 2.3 86.1 83.5 10.2 11.1 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 8 92 100 11.0 12.0 11.0 2.6 91.9 89.0 8.9 9.8 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 16 84 100 12.0 13.4 14.3 2.3 86.5 83.2 10.1 11.0 11.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 8 92 100 7.1 8.3 9.2 2.5 93.1 89.1 5.1 6.3 7.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 4 96 100 12.3 13.7 14.6 2.7 92.5 89.4 9.3 11.0 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 21 79 100 11.1 11.7 13.8 1.9 81.2 79.4 9.4 10.1 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 14 86 100 12.0 12.5 14.2 2.3 84.4 82.8 9.5 10.3 11.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 9 91 100 11.9 12.2 12.9 2.4 87.9 86.8 9.4 10.9 11.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 2 98 100 12.9 14.2 14.5 3.1 93.5 91.1 10.7 11.5 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 1 99 100 11.5 11.9 11.1 2.6 87.8 87.9 8.9 9.9 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 4 96 100 13.7 15.2 14.8 3.2 93.2 91.1 10.4 11.6 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 11.1 12.8 13.2 3.0 96.1 93.4 8.3 9.7 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 5 95 100 10.3 12.3 10.4 2.6 93.4 89.8 7.8 8.6 9.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 11 89 100 12.2 14.2 14.7 2.5 87.6 84.7 10.2 11.2 12.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------