***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.09.2016.-16.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 40.1 47.6 52.0 114.4 62.6 56.7 26.8 36.9 48.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 26.6 44.7 45.7 111.5 63.0 55.4 23.2 37.8 46.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 45.8 42.1 47.6 103.3 55.9 51.2 30.6 39.8 56.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 69.2 69.6 49.7 94.6 54.3 50.5 53.3 62.9 82.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 52.7 52.1 46.4 96.6 55.3 49.7 31.5 49.7 56.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 50.5 42.3 48.6 94.6 48.0 49.7 30.7 44.9 65.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 23.4 46.0 46.8 114.1 64.5 55.7 24.5 34.3 47.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 66.7 68.2 50.4 98.7 55.3 50.1 50.4 62.6 75.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 46.8 49.7 48.8 100.5 58.9 51.7 36.0 42.3 55.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 51.1 50.7 52.5 100.3 55.1 51.0 37.0 46.4 57.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 49.2 44.8 45.7 96.4 54.8 49.4 34.4 41.3 56.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 47.6 52.4 44.4 96.3 54.7 49.2 28.5 41.2 59.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 52.0 50.8 47.6 96.5 56.9 49.5 36.2 44.7 61.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 65.4 65.7 55.3 101.1 57.4 51.4 48.1 58.7 71.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 48.5 51.6 50.3 98.4 58.4 52.6 31.6 44.7 56.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 45.7 43.8 44.7 94.1 55.2 48.2 30.1 39.8 53.5 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 21.5 38.6 45.9 110.6 64.8 54.0 18.1 35.2 39.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 53.3 48.5 55.4 101.0 53.2 50.4 37.9 47.7 57.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 43.6 45.6 45.9 108.4 60.4 54.1 30.0 39.5 49.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 58.3 48.6 59.7 100.0 53.4 49.8 41.4 48.4 75.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 44.4 46.3 48.7 103.4 56.3 51.9 34.8 41.8 52.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 24.3 40.3 44.4 102.4 56.2 51.1 25.6 35.2 47.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 41.6 41.8 47.8 106.1 58.5 53.3 30.1 37.9 49.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 57.4 55.8 51.3 99.6 52.7 49.4 32.8 52.4 61.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 52.0 60.4 56.2 112.0 61.7 57.0 30.3 48.0 62.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 49.5 43.7 43.6 93.3 52.1 48.4 34.3 43.2 56.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 49.2 51.0 55.3 116.8 63.4 58.4 27.8 45.8 51.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 48.7 46.8 47.8 94.2 55.9 50.3 36.0 45.5 57.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 73.7 61.4 56.5 99.9 51.5 49.7 57.0 61.4 91.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 34.8 35.9 46.3 109.1 59.5 53.7 26.2 29.6 42.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------