***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.10.2016.-16.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 0.7 5.6 9.3 99.5 68.6 47.1 0.1 1.5 4.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 6.5 8.9 8.9 110.7 68.4 48.7 0.9 3.7 7.8 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 2.5 9.9 9.2 94.5 66.3 48.4 0.1 5.1 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 9.6 12.9 8.5 79.7 60.9 46.7 0.5 2.8 17.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 8.7 15.3 8.1 83.5 65.5 47.0 0.0 4.1 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 1.7 6.3 7.0 62.6 54.0 40.3 1.1 4.3 15.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 1.2 10.7 9.2 118.7 71.3 49.7 0.4 2.6 7.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 2.8 18.1 8.8 88.7 63.3 44.6 1.8 6.9 19.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 2.6 11.3 8.8 89.4 66.9 47.2 0.0 5.6 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 2.3 12.3 9.1 88.9 64.3 44.9 0.4 5.6 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 2.1 9.6 7.5 80.8 61.8 44.8 0.0 4.8 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 1.0 7.7 7.1 77.6 60.2 43.5 0.1 2.5 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 1.6 7.9 7.2 69.9 57.5 43.7 0.6 3.3 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 3.3 10.9 10.2 93.0 61.8 46.3 0.1 6.8 15.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 0.8 9.9 7.4 70.4 61.4 46.9 0.0 1.6 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 1.5 4.3 7.0 72.5 58.1 44.3 0.2 3.3 6.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 5.7 6.4 10.1 117.9 69.8 50.7 0.5 4.4 6.3 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 4.2 18.1 9.9 92.4 63.5 46.1 1.0 10.0 19.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 6.8 7.2 8.6 102.2 66.5 47.9 0.4 2.8 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 2.3 11.0 12.2 106.3 65.6 49.2 0.8 5.3 11.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 2.4 10.4 9.0 90.9 68.3 48.0 0.1 5.3 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 2.2 7.9 9.5 102.3 66.7 48.6 0.2 4.9 7.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 7.5 7.3 8.7 94.8 66.4 47.8 0.2 2.4 7.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 3.7 13.8 9.5 91.1 64.9 46.4 0.3 8.6 15.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 1.5 9.9 9.7 92.8 63.8 46.4 1.3 3.2 11.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 2.3 6.4 7.2 73.3 56.8 42.7 0.0 5.1 21.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 1.6 7.1 9.4 98.2 64.7 46.4 0.1 3.5 7.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 0.6 8.9 7.5 71.5 61.1 46.4 0.8 1.3 11.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 7.2 22.4 10.4 95.3 63.2 46.5 1.9 16.8 27.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 5.6 5.5 8.7 104.8 68.7 49.0 0.8 2.0 5.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------