***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.10.2016.-09.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 4.4 5.7 9.8 112.4 64.9 51.2 0.9 3.5 5.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 6.5 12.0 9.7 109.4 65.8 52.0 0.4 3.9 12.0 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 1.9 10.9 10.1 104.4 63.3 49.9 0.7 3.8 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 15.4 13.2 10.7 95.0 61.6 49.3 4.0 10.0 20.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 8.8 7.7 9.7 87.4 59.3 47.6 2.2 4.9 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 3.9 11.5 11.7 99.0 64.2 51.5 1.6 7.6 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 8.3 13.9 9.3 107.2 68.7 51.6 0.3 5.3 13.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 5.2 16.4 10.8 87.3 60.8 48.0 4.7 10.8 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 11.1 10.9 10.1 90.3 60.0 49.6 1.4 9.0 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 4.2 10.2 11.0 88.9 60.9 48.5 2.9 8.8 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 1.8 5.9 9.7 90.0 60.5 49.1 1.7 3.7 9.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 2.6 8.4 9.8 90.1 61.2 48.8 1.4 5.4 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 8.1 7.3 10.8 97.4 65.5 51.9 3.0 5.4 7.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 3.6 9.8 12.0 93.0 61.4 47.1 3.0 8.0 11.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 1.9 14.2 10.8 106.6 67.0 52.2 1.1 4.4 13.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 2.2 9.1 10.4 99.7 63.3 51.2 1.2 4.4 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 2.5 11.3 9.7 106.8 66.9 50.9 0.3 5.3 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 12.7 12.1 12.0 92.2 56.8 48.4 2.3 9.9 15.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 7.2 8.5 10.1 108.8 65.0 51.0 0.9 4.2 8.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 16.0 15.7 13.4 87.0 57.1 47.7 5.3 12.7 21.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 3.0 11.3 9.4 94.2 63.2 50.0 2.4 6.1 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 3.2 11.9 9.5 93.8 60.7 48.1 0.2 6.8 14.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 2.0 8.3 10.5 104.4 63.4 48.9 0.5 4.2 8.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 3.6 10.9 11.6 99.6 60.5 49.0 1.4 7.6 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 7.6 8.6 9.5 95.7 60.0 49.0 0.9 5.4 10.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 3.3 10.4 10.6 95.2 64.1 52.6 2.3 6.5 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 5.4 7.3 10.0 108.9 64.4 51.3 1.2 4.3 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 1.8 12.5 11.1 106.4 66.1 51.8 0.3 3.8 12.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 7.2 18.3 12.7 94.2 57.9 48.5 5.4 13.8 21.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 7.3 9.3 9.5 103.2 65.2 50.2 0.7 4.9 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------