***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.09.2016.-02.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 2.8 7.5 9.5 82.2 53.9 46.7 1.1 5.6 19.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 1.9 6.0 9.2 85.7 59.2 46.3 1.2 3.9 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 3.4 8.3 9.3 75.9 53.9 42.9 2.1 6.9 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 7.6 23.6 11.3 88.5 63.3 47.3 9.9 14.9 24.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 5.0 15.6 10.5 82.3 60.8 43.9 5.2 9.5 17.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 5.0 12.7 9.9 82.1 54.3 41.6 2.4 9.1 19.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 1.7 7.2 8.6 79.7 57.3 44.0 1.4 4.1 9.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 8.8 15.7 10.3 86.0 55.0 42.2 8.1 15.1 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 6.0 13.3 9.9 81.7 59.0 40.7 3.4 11.6 13.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 8.7 18.4 10.6 81.6 55.5 41.3 8.9 16.2 21.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 6.0 16.4 12.0 92.9 60.8 48.3 8.6 12.6 19.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 4.3 17.1 10.3 91.0 57.7 43.8 4.6 7.0 19.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 4.3 11.8 10.5 86.3 57.9 43.2 3.0 8.5 17.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 7.8 11.5 10.7 74.6 51.5 42.4 6.6 11.1 19.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 5.1 15.6 9.4 75.6 63.8 47.3 4.2 10.7 16.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 4.3 11.1 10.8 88.5 58.9 46.0 3.7 9.3 14.0 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 1.5 5.1 9.3 85.7 59.3 45.1 0.6 3.0 7.3 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 7.1 13.6 11.0 77.3 55.3 41.3 6.0 12.7 18.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 7.6 7.9 9.2 83.2 57.1 46.0 3.5 5.7 8.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 7.1 13.1 12.1 81.3 53.4 41.7 5.0 11.4 15.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 12.9 16.2 9.9 84.4 57.3 44.6 5.3 10.6 18.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 1.8 5.7 8.9 81.6 55.4 43.7 0.9 4.1 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 10.3 9.5 9.6 80.1 52.4 45.2 4.0 8.5 11.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 6.1 11.2 10.2 73.9 52.8 42.8 4.1 9.9 17.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 4.5 15.2 9.8 77.0 58.1 41.8 5.1 9.6 18.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.0 9.5 10.3 83.6 57.7 48.1 3.5 6.3 15.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 3.5 9.0 9.8 78.3 56.2 44.4 2.7 7.3 19.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 5.4 14.4 10.3 83.8 62.1 47.1 6.5 11.0 17.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 11.0 19.7 11.1 74.3 49.8 40.3 10.6 19.8 30.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 2.0 5.2 8.6 77.0 56.1 44.7 1.9 4.4 7.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------