***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.09.2016.-25.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 46 54 100 12.8 16.7 23.4 148.1 76.0 69.5 1.4 7.2 14.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 8.5 13.8 17.9 134.1 71.9 63.2 1.9 6.4 12.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 9.0 16.3 19.1 131.4 70.9 65.3 2.3 6.8 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 89 11 100 8.4 15.9 19.1 107.7 67.6 63.9 2.5 6.7 13.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 45 55 100 11.9 16.6 18.2 124.2 71.0 67.1 0.5 4.2 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 8.9 13.0 20.0 123.5 73.1 67.4 1.6 8.0 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 43 57 100 13.8 18.3 19.6 143.1 72.6 64.1 2.4 4.9 14.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 10.7 18.7 20.5 121.8 73.0 66.9 2.6 7.7 15.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 15.4 17.5 20.0 129.8 70.8 67.5 0.5 5.1 14.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 15.7 22.6 21.7 130.3 73.4 68.0 1.1 4.4 20.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 87 13 100 4.2 17.6 16.6 112.8 73.2 65.5 0.5 2.2 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 86 14 100 6.5 12.2 17.1 115.9 71.3 66.5 0.2 5.4 11.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 89 11 100 7.2 18.9 19.0 121.1 74.2 67.9 0.3 5.8 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 44 56 100 19.6 25.3 22.4 136.1 74.1 67.8 1.7 7.7 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 49 51 100 10.3 16.4 22.7 125.9 72.9 67.6 0.8 2.3 11.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 88 12 100 4.1 9.1 16.5 108.4 73.6 64.0 1.3 2.8 6.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 9.9 14.4 16.8 129.5 71.9 63.0 1.3 2.9 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 42 58 100 11.9 16.3 22.6 133.3 74.6 68.1 1.0 4.1 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 44 56 100 15.0 21.9 17.9 133.1 71.2 63.7 1.4 3.2 17.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 11.3 17.0 21.9 119.3 69.1 64.7 0.9 9.4 16.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 45 55 100 13.5 15.5 20.4 131.8 72.7 67.5 1.8 4.9 13.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 10.0 14.2 16.4 126.5 70.4 61.3 2.0 7.8 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 44 56 100 13.6 17.1 19.0 137.3 72.0 66.1 2.4 4.6 14.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 46 54 100 17.6 21.4 20.0 128.5 72.8 65.9 1.1 7.4 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 23 77 100 16.1 18.7 27.2 159.7 77.0 73.0 1.6 7.0 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 7.3 17.8 15.5 115.1 70.8 66.1 0.6 4.8 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 12.4 15.3 26.1 163.1 77.6 72.0 1.2 5.3 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 89 11 100 4.8 10.1 18.8 108.0 69.3 63.8 0.2 2.9 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 48 52 100 19.5 22.8 22.3 129.5 73.5 66.1 4.2 9.6 18.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 44 56 100 12.3 14.6 19.5 141.7 73.6 64.7 0.8 4.3 10.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------