***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.09.2016.-16.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 21.3 20.9 20.0 -0.5 45.0 44.6 20.3 21.1 21.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 21.8 21.4 20.4 -0.3 47.0 47.2 20.7 21.5 22.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 22.0 21.6 20.5 -0.4 48.3 46.4 20.8 21.7 22.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 14.8 14.0 17.7 -0.3 43.2 45.3 13.7 14.4 14.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 22.2 21.4 18.7 -0.4 43.4 44.7 21.1 21.9 22.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 19.7 20.4 17.0 -0.4 42.6 43.6 19.9 21.3 21.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 21.4 21.0 20.2 -0.4 44.7 45.6 20.6 21.1 21.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 11.8 11.3 17.3 -0.4 45.3 45.3 11.0 11.5 12.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 22.0 21.7 19.4 -0.3 48.7 47.5 20.6 21.7 22.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 21.8 21.5 18.1 -0.3 47.6 47.3 20.6 21.6 22.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 22.0 21.5 18.8 -0.4 45.8 45.5 20.6 21.7 22.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 21.6 21.0 18.1 -0.5 44.1 43.7 19.9 21.4 22.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 20.7 21.0 18.2 -0.5 41.7 42.6 20.8 22.1 22.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 22.4 22.0 19.3 -0.2 48.9 48.5 21.0 22.1 22.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 21.7 21.4 19.2 -0.2 48.5 47.6 20.3 21.5 22.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 22.9 22.1 18.4 -0.4 42.4 44.2 21.5 22.7 23.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 21.2 20.9 20.1 -0.2 49.0 48.8 20.3 20.9 21.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 21.1 20.7 17.7 -0.2 49.4 48.7 20.0 20.7 21.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 21.6 21.3 20.5 -0.3 49.2 48.1 20.5 21.3 22.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 17.6 17.0 15.6 -0.3 45.9 46.5 16.5 17.3 18.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 21.9 21.5 20.0 -0.5 44.6 44.8 20.8 21.7 22.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 21.9 21.7 20.1 -0.2 48.3 48.3 20.9 21.7 22.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 21.8 21.7 20.7 -0.1 52.9 50.0 20.7 21.4 22.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 21.9 21.6 19.3 -0.2 50.2 49.0 20.8 21.6 22.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 21.4 20.8 18.6 -0.5 41.8 43.2 20.5 21.2 21.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 20.5 21.4 17.6 -0.5 41.2 42.3 20.5 22.1 22.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 21.5 21.0 19.4 -0.5 44.7 44.2 20.7 21.3 21.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 21.8 21.1 18.4 -0.2 45.3 46.6 20.3 21.4 22.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 16.7 16.3 17.0 -0.2 49.5 48.3 15.8 16.3 17.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 21.5 20.9 20.3 -0.4 45.5 46.0 20.5 21.2 22.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------