***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.10.2016.-09.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 19.7 21.2 20.0 -0.1 48.2 49.7 19.9 21.3 22.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 21.7 21.3 20.4 0.2 55.0 52.8 20.9 21.2 22.3 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 19.8 21.7 20.6 0.1 52.2 51.8 20.8 21.7 22.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 12.1 14.9 17.9 -0.1 53.6 49.7 12.0 14.6 15.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 19.7 21.6 18.7 -0.1 51.3 49.7 20.2 21.5 22.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 19.1 21.0 17.1 -0.1 50.8 49.4 19.4 20.8 22.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 21.4 21.1 20.2 0.0 50.9 51.0 20.1 21.1 21.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 11.8 11.4 17.5 0.1 49.1 51.0 9.9 11.5 12.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 19.8 21.6 19.2 0.0 50.6 51.0 20.5 21.6 22.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 21.5 20.9 18.3 0.2 50.8 51.8 19.8 20.9 22.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 22.1 21.7 18.6 0.0 50.7 50.4 20.3 21.6 22.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 21.5 20.9 18.3 -0.1 48.3 49.7 19.4 21.0 22.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 22.6 21.9 17.9 -0.2 47.3 49.2 20.6 22.1 23.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 22.3 21.9 19.4 0.4 52.7 53.1 20.3 21.6 22.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 19.1 21.1 18.7 0.1 56.0 52.0 19.3 20.8 21.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 23.0 22.6 18.3 -0.1 49.1 49.8 21.3 22.8 23.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 21.1 21.0 20.3 0.3 56.1 53.1 19.9 20.7 21.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 20.7 20.1 18.1 0.3 52.0 52.9 19.2 20.1 21.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 21.5 21.5 20.6 0.3 55.1 53.5 20.6 21.1 21.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 17.5 17.2 15.9 0.3 50.2 52.4 15.9 17.1 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 19.4 21.5 19.8 -0.1 51.3 49.8 20.3 21.4 22.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 22.0 21.9 20.3 0.4 55.6 53.7 20.2 21.6 22.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 21.8 21.6 20.8 0.4 54.6 53.9 20.8 21.5 21.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 22.1 22.0 19.3 0.3 53.5 53.0 20.2 21.7 22.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 19.4 20.7 18.4 -0.2 49.5 48.8 19.9 20.7 21.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 21.9 21.5 18.0 0.0 49.8 50.1 20.3 21.5 22.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 19.8 21.5 19.3 -0.1 47.9 49.4 20.8 21.6 22.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 18.9 21.4 18.3 0.0 54.2 50.7 19.3 21.1 22.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 17.1 16.8 17.3 0.3 51.4 52.9 14.5 16.7 17.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 21.4 21.0 20.4 0.1 51.6 51.6 20.4 20.9 22.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------