***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.09.2016.-25.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 72 28 0 100 21.0 21.4 20.0 -1.9 29.6 28.9 21.6 23.1 23.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 22.0 21.9 20.3 -1.8 32.5 31.6 21.9 23.8 24.3 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 21.4 22.1 20.2 -2.0 29.1 29.7 22.1 23.8 24.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 72 28 0 100 14.0 15.3 17.3 -1.6 31.3 31.5 15.4 16.5 17.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 89 11 0 100 20.6 22.6 18.5 -2.0 30.3 29.4 22.7 24.3 25.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 86 14 0 100 20.0 20.6 16.5 -2.2 25.5 27.2 21.7 23.9 24.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 21.4 21.3 20.2 -1.9 32.4 30.7 21.4 23.1 23.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 87 13 0 100 10.4 11.2 16.4 -2.3 25.3 26.4 11.7 13.2 13.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 78 22 0 100 21.3 22.2 19.5 -1.8 30.7 30.5 22.6 24.0 25.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 80 20 0 100 20.5 21.5 17.5 -2.1 27.6 28.3 21.9 23.6 24.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 84 16 0 100 21.1 21.9 18.9 -2.1 28.9 28.6 22.3 24.3 25.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 88 12 0 100 20.3 20.8 17.6 -2.2 26.0 26.8 21.5 23.2 24.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 88 12 0 100 21.3 21.7 18.4 -2.4 25.7 26.4 22.6 24.8 25.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 75 25 0 100 21.1 21.8 18.9 -2.0 30.7 30.6 21.9 24.0 25.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 21.6 22.8 20.1 -1.2 32.6 33.6 22.9 24.0 25.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 85 15 0 100 21.6 22.6 18.4 -2.1 28.4 28.1 23.1 25.1 26.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 23.2 21.6 20.1 -1.6 33.1 34.3 21.5 22.6 23.3 30 Palic 37000G16 81 19 0 100 19.8 20.6 16.6 -2.2 28.1 28.6 21.1 23.1 24.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 21.7 21.7 20.4 -1.8 32.0 31.7 21.8 23.2 23.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 90 10 0 100 16.1 16.4 14.6 -2.5 24.4 25.0 17.4 19.0 20.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 83 17 0 100 20.9 22.1 20.0 -2.0 30.2 29.2 22.2 24.3 25.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 21.7 21.7 20.1 -1.7 31.9 33.4 21.8 23.4 24.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 21.9 21.9 20.4 -1.6 31.8 32.5 21.9 23.4 24.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 74 26 0 100 20.8 21.5 18.9 -2.0 30.3 30.0 21.7 23.7 24.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 86 14 0 100 20.6 21.9 18.8 -2.0 30.3 28.5 22.4 23.4 24.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 87 13 0 100 20.6 21.7 17.0 -2.6 24.9 25.4 22.9 24.2 25.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 75 25 0 100 21.2 21.8 19.4 -2.0 29.7 28.5 22.0 23.5 23.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 21.6 22.7 18.6 -1.4 31.8 32.1 22.8 24.3 25.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 83 17 0 100 15.0 16.1 15.9 -2.3 26.9 27.5 17.2 18.7 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 21.7 21.6 20.3 -2.0 31.9 30.1 21.6 23.3 23.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------