***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.09.2016.-16.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 9.5 9.4 11.8 -0.1 54.0 50.6 8.6 9.4 9.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 9.6 9.5 11.5 0.1 55.6 54.3 8.8 9.3 10.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 11.6 11.6 12.0 0.0 53.3 52.6 10.9 11.4 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 7.1 6.9 9.1 0.0 49.1 50.7 5.9 6.9 7.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 9.1 8.6 9.7 0.0 48.3 50.0 7.7 8.8 9.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 8.2 7.6 7.7 0.0 40.9 48.4 7.3 8.0 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 9.6 9.5 11.6 0.0 53.9 52.3 8.8 9.3 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 3.8 3.5 7.8 0.0 46.1 49.1 3.3 3.5 4.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 9.9 9.8 10.1 0.1 53.5 52.2 9.0 9.6 10.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 9.4 9.2 8.6 0.0 49.1 50.8 8.6 9.2 10.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 9.2 9.0 9.3 0.0 47.6 50.3 8.1 9.1 9.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 8.2 7.6 8.4 -0.1 45.1 47.2 7.2 8.0 8.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 8.8 7.9 8.2 -0.1 40.9 45.9 7.6 8.6 9.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 9.9 9.8 10.0 0.1 52.6 53.9 9.1 9.8 10.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 9.8 9.7 10.6 0.2 51.9 55.2 9.3 9.6 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 9.9 9.4 8.8 0.0 44.0 49.2 9.2 9.6 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 9.6 9.8 11.3 0.2 57.5 56.0 8.8 9.3 10.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 8.5 8.2 8.1 0.0 49.3 51.1 7.3 8.3 9.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 9.5 9.3 11.6 0.1 55.4 55.0 8.7 9.2 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 4.9 4.5 6.3 0.0 45.1 48.6 3.7 4.7 5.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 9.3 9.3 11.3 0.0 54.8 51.2 8.3 9.0 10.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 8.6 8.8 11.4 0.2 56.6 56.4 7.9 8.3 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 9.2 9.1 11.6 0.2 55.0 56.1 8.4 9.0 9.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 9.2 9.0 9.9 0.1 52.8 53.4 8.5 8.9 9.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 9.9 9.7 10.7 -0.1 52.1 48.9 9.0 9.7 10.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 7.8 8.2 7.7 -0.3 36.9 41.6 8.0 8.7 9.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 10.0 10.1 11.3 -0.1 53.1 50.0 8.7 9.7 10.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 8.4 8.2 9.5 0.1 49.7 52.5 7.5 8.2 8.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 7.4 7.1 7.5 0.0 49.4 51.3 6.7 7.1 8.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 9.8 9.9 11.7 0.0 54.1 52.6 9.0 9.6 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------