***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.10.2016.-16.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 7.7 7.2 10.5 0.3 54.2 53.8 6.4 7.1 8.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 7.8 7.6 10.2 0.3 57.2 54.7 6.2 7.2 8.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 9.9 9.9 10.6 0.4 54.6 54.3 8.1 9.5 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 5.0 4.8 7.6 0.3 50.8 53.7 3.5 4.8 5.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 6.7 6.0 8.1 0.4 51.0 54.5 5.5 6.0 7.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 6.2 6.3 6.3 0.5 54.4 55.9 4.7 5.9 6.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 7.6 7.3 10.2 0.3 55.6 53.9 6.7 7.0 8.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 2.4 2.0 6.5 0.5 52.2 55.5 1.0 1.9 2.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 7.8 7.5 8.5 0.4 51.1 54.9 6.7 7.3 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 7.6 7.5 7.2 0.5 51.1 55.1 6.3 7.3 8.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 7.2 6.9 7.5 0.4 52.1 55.4 6.1 6.8 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 6.0 5.9 6.9 0.5 52.8 55.5 5.3 5.7 6.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 7.0 7.0 6.5 0.5 54.4 55.3 5.7 6.8 7.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 7.9 7.7 8.6 0.3 51.1 53.4 6.5 7.6 8.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 8.2 8.2 8.7 0.4 55.3 55.7 7.3 8.0 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 7.9 7.8 7.0 0.4 54.0 55.4 6.8 7.6 8.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 7.9 7.9 10.1 0.4 57.2 54.8 6.5 7.4 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 6.5 6.1 6.7 0.4 49.4 54.0 5.4 6.1 7.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 7.4 7.8 10.2 0.4 56.7 55.0 6.3 6.9 8.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 2.8 2.5 5.0 0.6 51.8 55.4 1.9 2.5 3.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 7.0 6.8 9.8 0.4 54.6 54.0 5.9 6.4 7.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 7.1 7.2 10.0 0.4 56.5 54.9 5.7 6.6 8.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 7.5 7.5 10.2 0.4 55.7 55.0 5.9 7.0 8.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 7.5 7.4 8.3 0.4 51.2 53.9 6.0 7.2 7.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 7.5 6.9 9.1 0.4 52.7 53.7 6.3 6.7 8.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 6.9 6.7 6.3 0.4 52.4 55.0 6.1 6.6 7.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 7.6 7.4 9.9 0.4 54.5 54.4 6.1 6.9 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 6.4 6.3 7.9 0.4 54.6 55.3 5.2 6.1 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 5.8 5.4 6.2 0.5 50.1 54.4 4.3 5.4 6.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 7.7 7.4 10.3 0.3 55.6 54.2 6.4 7.2 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------