***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.10.2016.-09.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9.4 8.8 11.4 -0.1 47.4 49.4 8.2 9.1 10.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 9.7 9.4 11.1 0.1 50.5 52.0 8.3 9.4 10.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 11.6 11.2 11.5 0.0 47.7 50.9 10.3 11.2 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 7.0 6.4 8.6 0.0 45.3 49.9 5.9 6.6 7.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 8.9 7.9 9.0 -0.1 43.3 48.9 7.2 8.4 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 8.3 7.0 7.4 0.1 43.1 50.4 6.2 7.7 8.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 9.5 9.2 11.2 0.0 49.5 51.1 8.4 9.2 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 4.2 3.3 7.4 0.1 44.0 49.9 2.4 3.9 5.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 10.2 8.6 9.3 -0.1 45.1 49.3 8.3 9.8 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 9.3 8.2 8.1 0.0 45.2 50.0 7.7 8.8 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 9.2 7.8 8.5 0.0 42.8 48.9 7.0 8.6 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 8.0 6.7 7.9 0.0 42.9 48.6 6.0 7.6 8.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 8.6 7.4 7.3 -0.2 42.4 47.0 6.7 8.0 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 9.8 9.5 9.6 0.2 49.3 52.7 8.5 9.5 10.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 10.3 10.0 9.7 0.1 47.9 51.3 8.7 10.1 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 9.8 8.7 7.9 -0.1 43.5 48.4 8.1 9.2 11.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 9.8 9.6 10.9 0.1 51.3 52.6 8.8 9.5 10.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 8.7 8.2 7.7 0.1 46.7 51.1 6.6 8.4 9.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 9.6 9.4 11.2 0.1 50.3 52.4 8.5 9.4 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 4.6 3.6 5.9 0.2 46.1 51.0 2.8 4.1 6.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 9.3 8.5 10.7 -0.1 47.2 49.2 7.8 8.8 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 8.5 8.4 10.8 0.2 53.0 53.2 7.7 8.1 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 9.3 9.0 11.2 0.2 50.0 52.8 7.9 9.0 9.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 8.7 8.0 9.3 0.1 47.7 51.7 7.5 8.3 9.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 10.3 9.5 10.1 -0.1 45.3 48.9 8.5 9.8 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 8.5 7.5 7.2 -0.2 38.4 47.1 7.1 7.9 9.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 10.9 10.3 10.8 -0.1 47.4 49.5 8.4 10.5 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 8.8 8.2 8.8 0.0 45.9 50.5 7.0 8.6 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 7.9 7.4 7.2 0.2 46.2 51.6 6.6 7.6 8.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 10.1 9.9 11.3 0.0 48.8 51.0 8.8 9.9 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------