***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.09.2016.-02.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 10.1 9.4 12.0 -0.7 46.3 42.4 8.9 9.5 10.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 8.4 9.8 11.7 -0.6 43.4 43.6 8.8 10.1 10.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 12.5 11.5 12.1 -0.6 44.6 42.8 10.7 11.9 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 7.7 6.4 9.1 -0.8 43.2 40.0 5.7 7.0 8.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 9.5 8.7 9.9 -0.8 44.2 39.8 8.3 9.0 10.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 7.3 7.4 7.5 -1.0 35.4 36.6 7.2 8.3 8.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 10.3 9.6 11.7 -0.6 42.6 42.8 8.9 9.9 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 4.2 3.1 7.7 -0.9 38.5 38.3 2.9 3.8 4.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 10.3 9.4 10.1 -0.7 44.6 39.9 8.9 9.7 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 10.1 9.4 8.6 -0.8 39.8 38.8 9.2 9.6 10.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 9.9 8.8 9.4 -0.9 39.8 37.6 8.3 9.4 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 8.8 7.7 8.4 -1.0 36.7 37.2 7.2 8.4 9.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 7.8 7.7 8.1 -1.2 29.1 33.7 7.8 8.9 9.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 10.6 9.8 10.1 -0.6 41.9 41.9 9.1 10.3 10.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 10.7 9.5 10.6 -0.8 40.6 38.6 8.7 10.3 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 10.6 9.7 8.7 -1.0 36.3 36.5 9.6 10.0 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 10.5 9.8 11.5 -0.4 43.5 45.2 8.7 9.9 10.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 9.0 8.0 8.2 -0.7 40.3 40.9 7.5 8.4 9.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 10.4 9.4 11.7 -0.5 43.8 44.0 8.7 9.8 10.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 5.2 4.1 6.4 -0.8 38.6 39.3 3.9 4.8 5.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 9.8 9.2 11.4 -0.7 43.5 40.8 8.8 9.4 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 9.7 9.1 11.6 -0.4 45.3 44.7 8.0 9.3 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 9.7 9.0 11.8 -0.4 45.0 45.2 8.5 9.2 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 10.0 9.1 10.1 -0.6 41.3 42.2 8.7 9.7 10.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 10.4 9.5 11.0 -0.8 43.8 41.8 9.1 9.9 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 7.9 8.2 7.6 -1.3 30.4 33.6 8.4 8.7 9.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 10.5 9.4 11.5 -0.8 44.4 42.1 8.5 9.7 12.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 9.0 8.0 9.4 -0.9 39.8 38.0 7.6 8.5 9.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 7.9 6.9 7.6 -0.7 39.5 40.7 6.7 7.4 8.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 11.0 9.6 11.9 -0.6 43.9 42.7 9.3 10.5 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------