***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.09.2016.-25.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 92 8 100 11.0 11.0 13.4 0.3 56.0 56.4 9.8 10.9 11.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 91 9 100 10.9 11.9 13.1 0.5 60.3 59.2 10.0 10.7 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 94 6 100 13.0 13.7 13.6 0.3 57.7 57.1 12.2 12.9 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 90 10 100 8.6 9.5 11.1 0.6 60.8 61.5 7.1 8.3 10.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 90 10 100 10.0 10.2 12.0 0.4 59.3 57.5 9.0 9.8 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 89 11 100 9.2 9.4 9.6 0.4 59.9 58.7 8.3 9.0 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 92 8 100 11.7 12.1 13.2 0.4 59.0 58.1 10.1 11.6 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 89 11 100 5.4 5.4 9.5 0.1 52.9 52.3 4.6 5.3 5.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 89 11 100 11.1 11.8 12.4 0.6 62.6 61.3 10.0 11.0 11.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 87 13 100 10.7 10.7 10.6 0.4 58.4 56.9 10.0 10.4 11.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 89 11 100 10.3 10.9 11.9 0.5 62.7 60.4 9.8 10.1 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 90 10 100 9.3 9.4 10.4 0.1 51.7 52.4 8.2 9.1 10.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 88 12 100 10.3 10.3 10.9 0.4 58.8 58.9 8.8 10.1 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 91 9 100 11.5 11.8 11.8 0.4 59.0 57.6 10.5 11.4 12.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 12.0 12.0 13.6 1.2 74.2 73.7 10.9 11.5 11.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 89 11 100 11.2 11.4 11.4 0.6 61.5 61.6 10.6 11.1 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 90 10 100 11.3 12.3 12.9 0.7 62.2 61.1 10.1 11.2 12.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 88 12 100 10.0 9.9 9.9 0.2 52.4 53.8 8.8 9.8 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 92 8 100 11.3 11.6 13.2 0.5 59.0 58.8 10.1 11.2 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 6.2 5.5 8.0 -0.1 44.7 47.1 5.1 5.9 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 93 7 100 10.4 10.8 13.3 0.4 58.1 58.7 9.6 10.3 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 92 8 100 10.3 10.4 13.1 0.6 58.9 59.7 9.6 10.2 10.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 94 6 100 10.7 11.0 13.3 0.5 59.9 59.3 9.8 10.6 11.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 93 7 100 10.6 11.0 11.9 0.4 56.9 57.3 9.7 10.4 11.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 92 8 100 11.3 11.3 12.7 0.1 54.6 53.6 10.1 11.2 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 10.4 10.0 9.7 -0.2 47.9 46.7 9.2 10.2 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 92 8 100 11.2 11.5 13.0 0.2 56.5 55.7 10.2 10.9 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 87 13 100 9.6 10.6 11.9 0.9 68.3 67.4 8.6 9.4 10.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 88 12 100 9.0 8.9 9.2 0.1 50.0 52.1 7.9 8.9 9.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 93 7 100 11.5 12.1 13.3 0.4 58.8 57.7 10.2 11.4 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------