***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.09.2017.-15.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 26.2 39.6 45.3 92.2 51.7 46.3 27.8 37.6 53.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 26.9 39.3 43.6 91.8 50.9 46.2 27.8 38.0 51.4 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 32.3 42.9 44.8 91.0 48.6 45.2 35.6 43.6 55.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 41.4 63.2 43.1 82.7 43.0 38.6 48.7 67.0 82.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 31.9 46.8 41.9 84.9 46.2 39.7 32.3 49.3 58.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 29.4 40.6 43.0 81.0 43.1 38.9 30.7 46.1 64.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 26.8 42.3 44.5 94.7 53.8 47.3 25.0 39.8 48.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 48.6 57.8 46.8 83.3 43.2 38.9 53.7 64.7 75.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 30.4 42.9 43.7 86.0 47.8 40.9 37.6 43.6 57.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 35.9 45.2 48.0 84.4 44.6 39.6 40.4 45.5 61.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 27.7 37.8 39.6 78.9 41.7 36.8 32.2 41.8 57.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 24.6 36.1 39.4 80.4 43.0 38.0 30.4 39.5 58.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 33.4 43.2 41.2 82.0 43.1 38.4 36.6 48.2 59.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 72.7 70.0 59.2 99.7 55.6 49.5 55.9 68.6 74.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 27.9 45.3 41.6 83.6 48.7 39.3 31.6 45.3 59.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 22.0 34.0 38.4 77.9 40.4 36.7 30.1 39.0 52.2 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 21.0 35.5 45.7 96.7 53.9 47.9 22.7 33.5 43.5 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 38.3 51.7 54.6 89.4 46.2 42.9 38.5 53.7 64.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 24.5 43.4 44.4 91.7 50.3 46.1 34.2 43.3 47.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 36.4 48.0 60.0 88.0 43.5 41.4 40.2 49.3 75.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 32.1 43.4 44.2 89.9 49.3 43.4 36.8 44.5 55.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 25.1 39.2 47.8 95.2 53.3 47.0 29.9 37.8 46.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 30.3 40.5 46.7 93.6 52.4 46.3 33.7 40.3 52.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 36.3 52.2 52.4 93.9 51.4 46.1 41.7 52.0 73.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 33.7 51.7 48.9 94.7 52.7 46.2 31.8 50.7 61.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 28.0 39.0 37.7 75.0 41.8 36.0 33.0 43.2 56.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 27.9 45.5 48.0 94.1 52.3 47.1 27.3 43.3 53.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 70 30 0 100 25.9 41.0 39.8 79.6 42.7 36.9 38.2 44.2 54.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 55.2 66.1 58.1 91.4 47.1 43.9 59.6 68.2 92.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 25.2 34.7 43.7 90.8 50.3 45.6 27.9 34.3 42.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------