***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.10.2017.-15.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 0.6 3.3 10.4 92.1 62.2 46.6 0.1 1.4 4.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 1.1 9.9 10.4 95.8 62.9 49.1 0.0 2.5 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 1.7 7.8 10.6 90.3 60.9 47.3 0.2 4.2 9.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 2.3 9.4 9.1 69.8 55.5 41.1 1.9 5.0 16.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 1.8 6.9 8.5 64.4 53.0 40.4 0.5 4.1 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 2.7 8.4 10.4 71.3 53.2 42.0 1.8 7.6 15.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 0.6 10.8 10.6 100.2 62.6 48.8 0.1 1.3 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 4.2 9.3 9.8 64.4 50.0 40.5 2.8 9.3 18.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 3.0 7.4 8.9 64.7 51.3 41.2 0.5 6.3 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 2.4 5.2 9.9 64.2 49.7 40.6 2.3 5.4 14.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 1.4 4.2 8.1 61.3 51.7 40.3 0.3 3.2 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 0.6 2.1 8.7 64.3 53.5 40.4 0.3 1.5 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 2.1 5.3 10.2 73.8 55.9 42.5 1.1 4.6 16.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 2.9 11.7 12.9 83.9 59.4 45.8 1.0 6.6 19.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 6.4 3.7 8.8 69.2 56.2 41.0 0.0 1.0 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 1.2 3.4 8.6 66.2 55.4 41.7 0.4 2.8 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 0.4 6.6 10.7 100.3 64.5 49.0 0.1 0.8 7.3 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 4.2 9.4 11.2 67.6 50.9 41.4 2.4 8.6 20.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 0.8 7.2 10.4 93.1 62.7 48.7 0.0 1.8 10.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 2.9 6.0 13.4 70.2 49.5 41.0 2.6 6.5 13.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 2.4 10.1 9.2 73.9 56.1 43.5 1.2 5.2 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 1.6 9.3 11.1 97.7 64.6 47.4 0.0 3.6 10.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 7.4 7.4 10.5 88.8 62.3 48.0 0.2 1.3 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 3.7 9.8 11.1 76.3 55.3 44.3 2.2 7.8 19.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 0.8 6.4 10.3 83.1 59.3 44.5 0.6 2.0 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 1.9 4.7 10.2 71.4 53.0 41.4 1.0 4.5 17.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 1.2 4.3 10.6 89.9 60.9 46.3 0.5 2.8 6.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 0.7 3.1 8.3 65.0 54.7 40.6 0.1 1.6 11.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 7.6 15.4 11.8 68.3 49.8 41.5 3.7 15.8 26.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 0.6 5.7 10.6 96.3 62.9 48.4 0.1 1.3 7.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------