***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.10.2017.-08.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 6.1 6.2 9.7 84.9 60.6 48.6 1.4 5.2 7.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 6.2 9.9 9.7 87.3 63.9 47.5 0.2 3.9 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 6.8 11.1 9.9 84.6 59.3 48.4 1.7 3.8 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 16.0 17.5 10.7 95.9 63.5 52.2 6.4 12.3 18.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 11.9 12.7 10.3 92.7 62.8 50.7 3.9 8.6 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 9.2 9.8 10.1 96.7 61.9 50.1 1.3 4.8 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 7.8 8.8 10.3 94.6 64.9 49.4 0.2 5.6 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 13.9 18.1 10.5 88.4 61.2 50.7 5.9 10.6 20.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 4.7 13.9 10.9 94.6 62.5 50.8 2.8 9.3 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 14.8 16.7 11.0 88.0 60.2 50.1 2.5 12.6 17.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 2.4 13.1 9.0 84.9 60.1 49.7 1.6 4.6 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 2.4 7.9 9.1 92.2 63.8 51.1 2.8 4.8 8.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 2.5 8.3 9.3 91.8 62.6 50.5 2.6 5.4 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 12.1 10.0 12.6 92.4 58.5 49.4 3.8 7.2 13.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 12.1 14.4 9.7 91.6 65.4 50.3 2.4 10.0 14.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 2.1 9.8 8.6 86.0 61.0 49.5 1.4 4.3 16.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 8.3 12.4 11.5 104.2 66.7 49.8 0.3 6.1 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 15.2 15.8 12.5 91.5 60.3 49.7 2.4 12.1 19.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 6.9 8.8 9.5 84.0 62.2 46.7 1.5 3.9 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 6.7 16.4 14.6 90.7 60.7 49.0 7.4 14.1 17.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 12.4 12.1 10.5 92.6 62.3 50.4 1.7 10.1 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 3.0 12.8 11.8 99.9 65.2 48.8 0.4 6.2 13.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 8.3 5.7 9.7 84.1 60.7 46.8 0.8 4.8 11.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 11.7 13.3 11.7 91.6 59.8 50.1 2.0 8.9 14.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 9.9 10.0 10.7 90.1 63.1 50.5 1.0 6.0 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 2.4 11.0 9.8 100.4 66.2 51.3 2.5 5.1 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 7.1 8.1 10.0 84.4 60.6 48.7 1.5 5.2 8.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 13.0 17.0 9.7 93.5 63.3 51.5 2.3 10.6 17.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 7.6 21.4 13.2 92.2 59.7 49.9 6.6 15.5 27.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 7.4 10.6 9.5 82.0 62.5 47.4 0.3 4.6 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------