***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.09.2017.-01.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 2.4 8.2 8.7 80.6 58.9 46.4 2.2 4.9 12.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 6.9 7.8 9.6 85.6 59.3 47.6 1.3 5.2 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 2.9 7.7 8.9 80.3 57.8 47.4 3.6 5.9 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 6.8 18.8 9.3 83.0 61.6 47.8 2.5 14.1 24.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 4.0 10.6 8.5 78.2 56.5 43.8 2.6 8.1 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 3.4 12.6 10.0 84.8 60.2 46.2 2.4 7.1 15.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 5.7 7.9 10.1 93.7 62.2 49.9 2.1 3.7 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 7.1 16.4 10.9 95.1 61.4 47.8 6.9 14.4 20.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 9.9 13.8 9.1 84.5 60.8 47.3 2.2 7.1 14.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 6.0 20.0 10.9 93.6 62.3 49.3 3.3 12.2 22.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 14.2 14.6 9.7 84.4 58.9 45.4 3.4 11.2 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 11.0 8.1 9.7 90.7 60.8 46.9 4.1 5.5 16.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 3.7 10.4 8.6 80.2 59.0 44.0 2.2 8.1 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 5.1 14.8 12.4 92.4 62.2 50.0 5.7 8.8 17.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 2.8 10.0 9.1 80.9 63.7 47.8 0.9 5.9 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 11.8 9.8 9.1 81.5 58.4 44.8 3.4 9.0 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 5.7 6.7 9.9 86.8 60.2 48.5 1.6 3.9 7.1 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 4.1 14.7 11.8 92.9 60.0 48.7 4.2 8.0 18.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 3.5 7.5 9.5 81.7 58.8 46.8 4.9 6.8 8.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 14.7 14.7 12.4 86.0 56.5 44.8 4.5 11.7 18.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 3.5 11.6 9.1 85.3 58.6 46.8 3.3 6.7 18.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 5.1 7.0 9.4 76.0 56.7 46.2 1.2 2.6 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 4.6 10.1 9.9 83.0 59.7 47.2 4.6 8.3 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 4.9 12.2 11.0 87.1 59.5 48.3 3.3 8.8 13.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 3.4 8.1 8.8 74.2 53.6 42.5 4.3 7.4 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 2.8 8.8 7.9 69.2 54.4 42.1 1.3 6.0 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 3.2 10.8 9.3 79.8 57.1 45.6 2.7 6.4 17.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 3.4 12.1 9.0 83.4 62.5 47.5 2.4 7.3 13.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 8.1 21.2 12.4 90.6 59.0 46.8 9.7 14.8 29.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 2.8 8.5 9.6 86.8 60.6 48.6 1.9 5.2 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------