***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.09.2017.-24.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 3.8 12.4 16.3 106.0 63.5 50.0 1.1 7.8 14.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 9.8 11.1 13.8 97.3 60.9 50.1 2.2 7.8 12.0 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 3.9 15.0 15.4 105.1 63.3 50.3 2.8 8.1 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 1.8 5.3 13.9 84.5 54.3 42.9 1.5 4.3 10.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 2.0 5.2 14.5 103.4 60.2 46.8 0.4 4.0 8.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 2.6 7.5 12.5 76.9 51.3 41.1 3.5 7.3 9.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 11.5 11.4 13.4 91.8 60.5 49.4 2.4 9.0 14.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 4.2 10.5 15.6 88.7 54.0 45.9 2.1 8.7 13.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 1.9 7.3 14.8 100.4 60.8 48.4 1.3 3.7 9.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 3.2 7.7 16.2 93.8 56.0 47.1 2.5 6.4 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 1.7 5.0 12.9 86.6 55.5 43.5 0.4 3.7 9.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 2.3 6.7 12.0 80.1 54.0 42.9 0.2 5.2 9.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 2.5 8.3 13.1 84.2 53.7 40.7 1.4 6.1 10.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 17.5 26.9 21.4 125.2 68.0 54.6 2.1 13.8 25.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 0.9 4.3 14.1 92.0 61.1 44.8 0.2 1.9 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 1.2 3.8 12.0 79.8 54.4 41.4 0.4 3.2 5.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 7.7 9.3 13.6 96.3 62.5 52.4 2.7 5.6 10.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 11.1 12.9 19.2 104.8 60.6 51.6 1.2 7.3 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 9.5 11.3 15.0 104.9 62.0 51.2 1.8 5.8 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 13.4 15.6 19.6 104.6 59.7 50.9 0.4 10.4 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 11.6 12.8 15.4 104.8 62.9 50.2 2.9 8.8 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 11.0 11.3 15.5 105.3 63.3 53.7 1.8 7.7 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 12.3 15.6 16.6 113.9 64.9 52.9 2.9 9.1 16.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 4.2 22.5 18.6 118.1 66.1 53.3 3.6 8.9 22.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 8.5 13.1 19.1 123.2 67.7 52.1 2.3 4.9 12.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 3.0 7.1 9.7 66.2 49.9 38.2 0.9 7.2 13.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 7.5 11.5 18.0 115.8 66.5 52.2 1.7 5.3 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 0.7 3.7 12.8 79.9 54.7 41.4 0.4 1.8 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 19.2 22.9 20.7 113.7 64.5 53.8 5.8 15.5 24.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 9.0 10.9 14.1 96.7 60.0 48.6 1.2 6.2 14.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------