***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.09.2017.-15.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 19.9 21.3 20.7 0.0 51.5 49.9 20.7 21.2 21.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 20.5 21.6 20.5 -0.2 47.0 46.3 20.9 21.8 22.6 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 20.4 21.9 21.0 0.0 51.7 49.2 20.8 21.9 22.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 15.8 15.4 19.3 1.1 71.0 65.0 14.0 14.6 15.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 20.6 22.4 19.7 0.4 57.6 55.4 21.2 21.9 22.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 21.7 22.0 18.3 0.8 64.6 61.3 20.2 21.4 22.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 20.1 21.2 20.5 -0.2 48.1 47.0 20.5 21.3 22.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 12.0 12.0 18.2 0.4 58.4 56.3 11.2 11.8 12.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 22.2 22.1 20.2 0.4 56.8 55.2 21.0 21.8 23.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 22.0 21.7 18.9 0.3 55.1 54.4 20.7 21.7 22.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 22.2 22.3 19.9 0.5 58.7 57.2 20.9 21.8 23.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 21.8 22.4 19.4 0.8 63.6 60.7 20.1 21.4 22.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 22.7 23.1 19.5 0.6 58.5 58.3 21.0 22.3 23.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 20.6 21.9 19.4 -0.2 45.6 45.6 21.1 22.2 22.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 22.4 22.7 20.9 1.5 78.3 69.7 20.6 21.8 22.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 23.1 23.6 19.9 0.9 63.8 61.7 21.8 22.8 23.7 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 19.9 20.8 19.9 -0.5 41.9 42.9 20.3 21.2 21.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 21.3 20.9 18.2 0.2 51.7 52.6 20.0 20.8 21.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 20.1 21.1 20.7 -0.2 48.2 47.4 20.5 21.3 22.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 16.3 17.6 16.1 0.1 52.1 52.2 16.7 17.6 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 20.4 21.8 20.6 0.0 51.9 50.1 20.8 21.8 22.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 20.4 21.2 19.7 -0.7 37.1 39.5 20.9 21.8 22.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 21.9 21.8 21.0 0.1 52.3 50.8 20.9 21.5 22.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 20.2 21.8 19.7 0.1 50.7 50.6 20.9 21.8 22.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 20.1 21.4 19.5 0.1 51.5 50.9 20.6 21.3 22.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 22.9 23.1 19.2 1.0 67.9 64.0 20.7 22.3 22.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 20.2 21.6 20.0 0.0 51.1 49.6 20.7 21.4 22.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 22.9 23.4 20.1 1.4 75.6 68.2 20.5 21.8 22.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 15.2 16.6 17.4 0.0 50.0 50.5 15.7 16.6 17.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 20.2 21.3 20.6 -0.2 49.3 47.6 20.6 21.4 22.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------