***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.10.2017.-15.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 19.5 20.1 19.3 1.2 64.4 59.9 16.5 19.0 20.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 19.8 20.0 19.2 1.1 63.5 58.4 17.6 19.2 20.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 19.8 20.4 19.8 1.4 66.2 61.0 17.8 19.3 20.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 11.8 13.2 18.0 2.0 71.5 66.1 10.7 11.3 12.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 19.9 20.2 18.4 1.7 66.4 63.0 17.9 19.5 20.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 19.1 19.3 16.7 1.6 61.7 61.5 17.7 18.7 19.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 19.4 19.5 19.1 1.0 62.9 58.2 17.3 18.9 19.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 9.9 10.2 17.0 1.7 62.9 61.9 8.7 9.3 10.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 19.8 20.3 18.8 1.7 67.4 62.6 18.4 19.3 20.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 19.5 19.9 17.8 1.7 64.7 62.1 17.7 19.1 20.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 20.1 20.2 18.4 1.8 65.0 63.0 18.6 19.7 20.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 19.7 20.2 18.0 1.8 64.9 62.9 17.7 19.4 20.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 20.3 20.3 17.5 1.6 63.0 61.3 18.2 19.9 20.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 20.3 20.6 18.3 1.3 63.8 60.0 17.4 19.9 20.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 19.8 20.2 18.7 2.1 73.6 67.0 17.5 18.5 19.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 21.6 20.9 18.2 1.9 65.7 63.6 19.1 20.3 20.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 19.2 19.0 18.8 0.8 60.4 56.6 17.0 18.5 20.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 18.7 19.5 17.4 1.7 63.8 61.8 16.7 18.2 19.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 19.6 20.0 19.4 1.2 64.3 59.3 17.2 19.1 20.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 16.0 15.9 15.0 1.5 60.4 60.2 14.4 15.4 16.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 19.6 20.3 19.2 1.4 65.9 61.1 17.7 19.1 20.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 19.9 19.9 18.7 0.8 57.3 56.2 17.8 19.3 20.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 20.0 20.5 19.7 1.4 66.4 60.8 17.7 19.6 20.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 19.9 20.1 18.6 1.6 66.2 61.9 17.7 19.4 20.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 19.2 19.1 17.9 1.3 63.8 60.5 17.4 18.9 19.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 20.7 20.6 17.6 1.8 67.8 63.2 18.2 19.3 20.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 19.5 19.6 18.6 1.2 63.8 59.7 17.6 19.0 19.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 20.1 19.6 18.4 2.2 71.7 66.8 17.6 18.4 19.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 15.2 15.0 16.5 1.5 62.5 60.6 12.8 14.7 15.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 19.3 19.9 19.3 1.1 65.0 59.1 17.1 18.8 20.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------