***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.10.2017.-08.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 21.5 21.6 20.9 0.7 57.1 54.9 20.2 21.1 21.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 21.8 22.2 20.8 0.6 56.4 54.1 20.5 21.5 22.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 21.8 22.0 21.3 0.8 57.8 56.0 20.5 21.3 22.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 14.4 16.0 19.6 1.5 65.1 61.0 12.7 13.6 16.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 22.0 22.3 20.0 1.1 60.0 57.9 20.4 21.6 22.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 20.9 21.2 18.4 1.1 61.0 58.8 20.1 20.4 21.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 21.6 21.7 20.8 0.6 57.0 54.2 20.5 21.3 22.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 11.9 12.2 18.7 1.1 61.2 58.4 10.3 11.5 12.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 20.1 22.4 20.3 1.0 59.8 57.4 20.0 21.6 22.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 21.7 22.1 19.3 1.0 60.3 57.6 19.4 21.3 22.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 22.2 22.5 20.0 1.2 62.2 59.6 20.2 21.9 22.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 21.5 21.9 19.8 1.3 63.5 60.4 19.2 21.1 22.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 22.6 22.6 19.4 1.2 61.6 59.3 20.7 22.4 22.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 22.2 22.0 19.8 0.6 55.1 55.2 20.7 21.7 22.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 21.4 22.9 20.2 1.6 67.5 61.8 19.0 20.8 22.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 23.0 23.1 20.0 1.4 63.6 61.1 21.5 22.7 23.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 21.1 21.1 20.3 0.3 54.6 52.3 20.1 20.7 21.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 21.5 21.4 19.0 0.9 60.0 57.3 18.9 21.0 21.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 21.6 21.8 21.0 0.6 57.3 54.7 20.2 21.3 22.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 18.0 18.4 16.6 0.7 58.8 56.5 16.2 17.7 18.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 21.8 22.1 20.7 0.8 57.1 55.8 20.0 21.4 22.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 20.2 22.0 20.1 0.2 52.9 50.8 20.5 21.9 22.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 21.8 21.9 21.2 0.8 58.8 56.1 20.7 21.5 22.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 22.3 22.2 20.1 0.9 59.4 57.3 20.5 22.0 22.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 21.2 21.3 19.5 0.8 56.8 55.7 19.9 20.7 21.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 21.7 22.5 19.5 1.4 65.3 61.6 20.4 21.4 22.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 21.7 21.6 20.1 0.6 56.4 54.7 20.4 21.3 22.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 21.6 22.8 20.0 1.6 67.0 62.0 19.7 21.0 22.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 17.7 17.8 18.0 0.8 57.9 56.3 14.8 17.4 18.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 21.6 21.5 20.9 0.6 57.0 54.6 20.2 21.3 22.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------