***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.09.2017.-01.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 19.4 21.1 22.0 0.1 52.9 51.0 20.3 20.9 22.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 20.0 21.6 21.7 -0.2 48.9 47.7 20.8 21.7 22.9 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 20.4 22.1 22.3 0.0 52.5 50.6 21.0 22.0 23.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 16.5 16.2 20.3 1.0 65.6 59.4 13.6 15.0 16.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 20.3 23.1 21.0 0.5 60.4 54.9 21.1 22.5 23.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 19.6 22.3 19.3 0.8 58.9 57.1 20.7 21.3 22.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 19.8 21.0 21.7 -0.2 46.9 48.3 20.4 21.2 22.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 9.7 12.2 19.5 0.7 58.8 56.0 10.4 11.7 12.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 20.1 22.7 21.7 0.6 60.1 55.3 21.1 21.9 23.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 19.9 22.8 20.3 0.5 57.9 55.0 20.4 21.6 23.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 20.3 22.8 21.4 0.7 60.2 56.2 21.2 22.4 23.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 19.7 22.7 20.7 0.9 62.5 58.2 20.6 21.9 22.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 20.4 23.0 20.9 0.7 57.3 56.1 21.4 22.4 23.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 20.3 22.5 20.8 -0.1 51.4 49.0 20.7 22.4 23.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 23.5 23.5 22.0 1.2 68.9 61.6 20.7 22.1 23.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 20.8 24.2 21.1 0.9 62.4 57.7 21.9 22.7 24.5 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 19.5 20.7 21.1 -0.4 45.3 46.2 20.1 21.1 22.4 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 19.2 21.4 19.6 0.4 55.7 53.8 19.6 21.0 22.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 19.7 21.7 22.0 -0.1 51.3 48.8 20.4 21.6 22.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 15.5 17.7 17.5 0.4 53.3 54.1 15.5 17.5 18.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 20.1 22.3 22.0 0.1 54.1 51.7 21.0 21.9 23.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 20.0 21.0 21.0 -0.6 41.7 44.4 20.8 21.5 23.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 19.8 22.3 22.4 0.3 56.9 52.2 20.7 21.7 23.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 20.1 22.3 21.2 0.3 54.8 52.4 20.3 22.0 23.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 19.8 21.6 20.8 0.1 54.1 51.6 20.2 21.3 22.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 20.6 23.1 20.3 1.2 63.2 60.0 20.9 22.3 23.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 19.6 21.1 21.3 0.0 51.6 50.6 20.5 21.1 23.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 23.8 23.7 21.1 1.2 66.8 60.7 20.4 22.7 23.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 14.7 17.0 18.7 0.3 53.4 52.7 15.2 17.0 18.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 19.6 21.2 21.9 -0.2 50.0 48.5 20.4 21.3 23.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------