***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.09.2017.-24.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 71 29 0 100 20.9 21.6 20.7 -1.9 25.2 28.5 22.0 22.9 23.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 76 24 0 100 21.3 21.4 20.3 -2.4 24.0 25.6 22.0 23.3 24.4 30 Becej 27400G00 78 22 0 100 21.0 21.1 20.4 -2.4 21.9 25.3 22.4 23.4 24.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 17.4 16.7 19.3 -0.1 47.2 45.6 15.7 16.9 17.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 78 22 0 100 21.1 21.9 19.4 -1.7 25.8 30.5 23.3 24.7 25.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 21.5 23.5 18.9 -0.2 42.4 44.1 21.7 23.8 24.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 73 27 0 100 20.8 21.2 20.3 -2.3 24.7 26.6 21.9 22.7 23.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 74 26 0 100 10.8 11.0 17.5 -1.6 27.2 31.7 11.9 13.4 14.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 75 25 0 100 21.1 21.6 20.2 -1.7 25.7 30.1 23.1 24.0 25.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 79 21 0 100 20.8 20.6 18.2 -2.0 24.2 28.9 22.2 23.7 24.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 74 26 0 100 21.7 22.4 19.9 -1.6 27.9 31.8 22.7 24.5 25.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 21.2 22.2 19.2 -0.9 33.3 37.4 22.2 24.0 24.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 21.9 23.1 20.2 -1.0 32.6 36.2 23.2 24.9 26.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 82 18 0 100 20.8 20.6 18.7 -2.9 18.8 21.6 21.7 23.2 24.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 24.6 25.2 22.7 0.9 64.9 59.4 22.6 24.4 25.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 22.9 24.1 20.2 -0.7 36.9 39.3 23.7 25.5 26.1 30 Nis 06700G01 79 21 0 100 20.4 20.1 19.5 -2.7 20.2 23.3 21.3 22.1 23.5 30 Palic 37000G16 83 17 0 100 20.0 19.8 17.0 -2.3 21.6 26.2 21.0 22.6 24.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 74 26 0 100 21.1 20.8 20.4 -2.4 24.1 25.8 22.0 23.0 24.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 86 14 0 100 16.5 16.7 15.3 -2.2 21.4 27.0 17.5 19.5 20.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 79 21 0 100 20.8 20.7 20.4 -2.2 22.0 26.2 22.8 23.8 24.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 87 13 0 100 20.7 20.4 19.2 -3.1 16.1 19.5 22.0 22.8 24.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 21.0 22.0 20.5 -2.1 26.4 28.2 22.2 22.8 24.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 80 20 0 100 20.7 20.6 19.0 -2.5 20.0 24.3 22.0 23.4 24.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 79 21 0 100 20.9 21.4 19.7 -1.8 24.3 28.5 22.5 23.3 24.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 22.6 24.7 19.5 -0.2 45.5 43.6 22.8 24.9 25.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 73 27 0 100 20.9 21.5 20.1 -1.9 25.6 28.3 22.3 23.0 24.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 25.0 25.0 21.0 0.5 56.7 53.1 22.8 24.7 25.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 85 15 0 100 15.3 14.8 16.3 -2.5 20.1 25.0 17.5 19.0 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 76 24 0 100 20.9 21.1 20.5 -2.3 23.9 26.2 22.1 22.9 24.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------