***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.09.2017.-15.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 8.9 9.4 11.8 -0.3 44.2 45.6 8.6 9.5 9.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 8.6 8.9 11.2 -0.5 38.2 40.9 8.7 9.3 10.5 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 10.9 11.5 11.8 -0.2 44.4 46.0 10.9 11.7 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 7.4 7.2 9.3 0.1 51.0 51.9 6.0 7.1 7.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 9.3 9.0 9.8 0.0 49.3 49.6 8.1 9.0 9.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 8.4 8.3 8.1 0.4 57.7 57.6 7.4 8.1 8.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 9.0 8.9 11.4 -0.4 40.4 42.9 8.9 9.7 10.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 4.1 3.7 7.7 0.0 48.9 51.1 3.4 3.7 4.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 8.9 9.7 10.0 0.0 49.5 51.1 9.3 9.7 10.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 8.6 9.2 8.5 0.0 47.4 50.3 8.9 9.3 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 9.5 9.3 9.4 0.1 53.2 53.7 8.3 9.2 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 8.4 8.3 8.5 0.1 51.8 53.2 7.5 8.1 8.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 9.2 8.9 8.4 0.1 49.9 51.1 7.7 8.9 9.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 9.1 9.6 9.7 -0.2 43.2 46.4 9.4 9.7 10.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 9.9 10.7 11.1 0.6 69.5 63.1 9.5 9.7 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 10.1 9.8 8.9 0.1 51.8 53.1 9.4 9.8 10.8 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 8.9 9.0 10.9 -0.5 35.9 39.2 8.9 9.6 10.5 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 7.2 8.2 7.8 -0.1 44.7 49.4 7.7 8.3 9.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 8.8 8.9 11.3 -0.4 39.7 42.2 8.7 9.4 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 5.0 4.2 6.1 -0.2 41.1 47.4 3.9 4.8 5.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 8.3 9.0 11.1 -0.1 46.2 48.6 8.8 9.2 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 7.9 8.1 10.8 -0.6 35.1 38.6 8.0 8.4 9.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 8.4 8.7 11.3 -0.2 43.5 45.2 8.6 9.1 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 8.4 9.0 9.6 -0.1 46.4 49.5 8.6 9.2 10.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 8.8 9.4 10.7 -0.2 43.0 46.1 9.2 9.7 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.0 8.5 7.9 0.0 45.6 49.5 8.2 8.8 9.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 10.5 9.5 11.2 -0.3 44.0 45.4 9.0 10.1 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 8.7 8.7 9.9 0.4 60.8 58.3 7.6 8.4 8.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 6.7 7.1 7.2 -0.1 42.2 48.5 6.8 7.3 8.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 9.1 9.2 11.5 -0.4 40.7 43.0 9.1 9.7 10.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------